Trifecta status on 2023 ballot in 5 states.
2023 Elections: The Future of State Leadership Hangs in the Balance
While most people are focused on the highly-anticipated 2024 election, the future of five states’ party leadership will be decided much sooner in the 2023 gubernatorial and legislative elections.
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia are all holding elections in 2023. The results could either break a Democratic trifecta in one state or create new Republican trifectas in others.
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Mississippi, Louisiana, and Kentucky will hold elections for governor, and voters in Virginia and New Jersey will decide the fate of their state representatives and senators.
A trifecta is a term used to describe a state where the executive and legislative bodies are all controlled by the same party. As of now, there are 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control.
Here are the five states with trifecta status on the line and a look at what their current system has been able to accomplish ahead of the November races.
New Jersey – Democratic Trifecta
New Jersey has seen both Republican and Democratic trifectas in its history. The Garden State has had 12 years of Democratic trifecta and eight years of Republican trifecta between 1992 and 2023.
New Jersey Democrats turned the tide in 2002 when Democrat Richard D. Codey was elected governor and the party took the House. Democrats later secured the Senate in 2004 and continue to maintain control over the General Assembly to this day.
Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) has touted the legislature’s accomplishments in areas like education and the economy. In 2022, Murphy declared he was “boldly progressive,” but kicked off 2023 praising lawmakers for bipartisan work — a change in tune believed to have resulted from the Democrats’ reelection cycle coming up in November.
New Jersey Democrats have used the trifecta to their agenda’s advantage ahead of the election. The Democrat-controlled legislature passed the Elections Transparency Act in March, which included spending and contribution limits, an overhaul of pay-to-play laws, and shortened the timeline for watchdog investigations of campaign finance violations.
However, in November, every seat is up for election, and with Democrats holding narrow margins in both chambers, it’s a moderately vulnerable race. Republicans need to win five seats in the Senate or six seats in the House to flip one chamber or the other.
The 2023 election in New Jersey will be using, for the first time, districts that were drawn following the 2020 census. These districts were criticized by New Jersey Republicans for being drawn unfairly in favor of Democrats — three of the four potentially competitive districts are held by Democrats, and the fourth is more Republican.
Kentucky – Possible Republican Trifecta
Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) is up for reelection. He will face Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, the Republican nominee, on Nov. 7.
Since 1947, there have only been three Republicans elected as the governor of the Bluegrass State, placing the odds against Cameron. However, Kentucky has a Republican majority in both chambers of the legislature, so this will be a test to see whether a Democratic incumbent can survive in a state trending deep red.
Cameron is also considered a rising star within the GOP, receiving support from former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). He is also the first Black candidate to become a major party’s nominee in a Kentucky gubernatorial race.
However, Beshear remains one of the most popular governors in the United States. He has campaigned on his administration’s handling of COVID-19 and several natural disasters, as well as a high-profile shooting that took place in Louisville in April. Cameron, on the other hand, has criticized Beshear for promoting President Joe Biden’s policies and has worked with the General Assembly to push forward bills regarding transgender rights and anti-abortion policy.
Kentucky has had eight years of Democratic trifectas and three years of Republican trifectas between 1992 and 2023. Republicans flipped the Senate in 2000. In 2017, Republicans received their first trifecta with wins in the House and governor’s mansion. They held onto it until 2020 after Beshear ousted Republican incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin.
The 2023 governor’s race in Kentucky leans Democratic, according to Cook Political Report.
Louisiana – Possible Republican Trifecta
Louisiana’s governor race could be a pivotal moment for Republicans to gain back the trifecta they lost in 2015.
Republicans had five trifectas between 1992 and 2023, and Democrats had eight. The last Democratic trifecta ended in 2008, when Republicans took the governor’s office and then the legislature in 2011 for the first time in nearly 20 years.
Democrats are losing a key advantage in the 2023 elections, as Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) is term-limited. He was the first Democratic governor to be reelected to a second term since the 1970s. Now, the seat is rated ”lean Republican.”
Republican Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry has a significant lead over other GOP candidates, and similar to Cameron, he has an endorsement from Trump. Landry is currently ahead in the polls compared to Shaun Wilson, the only Democratic candidate in the race.
The state passed a significant amount of bipartisan bills that went into effect on Aug. 1, such as increased punishments for fentanyl-related crimes, changes to the state’s age verification laws, and requirements for every public school to display the phrase “In God We Trust.”
However, some hardline conservative packages failed to become law, with the Democratic governor issuing vetoes on a “Don’t Say Gay” bill that prohibited public school teachers from discussing gender identity in the classroom and a measure that would require the use of pronouns assigned at birth when addressing students.
A ban on gender-transitioning health care for minors will go into effect on Jan. 1, 2024. Edwards had vetoed the bill, but the legislature used its Republican super-majority to override it.
All seats in the legislature are up for reelection in 2023. However, the legislature is expected to stay in the hands of the GOP.
Virginia – Split Legislature, Possible Republican Trifecta
Virginia’s legislative race is one that all eyes will be on in 2023.
It is one of two states that have a split legislature: Republicans have a two-seat majority in the House of Delegates, and Democrats have a two-seat majority in the Senate. Between 1992 and 2023, Republicans and Democrats each had four trifectas. Both parties have experienced divided governments (executive one party, legislature another) and divided trifectas (legislature split).
With all seats up for reelection and a fiery primary race, it is up in the air as to which party will maintain control and which one will lose it.
Virginia, like New Jersey, is using districts enacted after the 2020 census. The difference is that most experts agree Virginia’s new district maps are fair to both parties, with neither gaining an advantage.
So, this means that Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) could face two possibilities: He could see Republicans gain a trifecta if the GOP can flip the Senate, or he could lose total control of the legislature if Democrats gain as few as three seats in the House of Delegates.
Virginia’s split General Assembly has made it difficult for Youngkin to enact his conservative agenda, particularly when it comes to introducing tough-on-crime legislation. Other areas, such as abortion access and a push for tax cuts, were either held up in lengthy discussions or killed in the Democratic-controlled state Senate.
Mississippi – Republican Trifecta
Mississippi Republicans have held a trifecta in the state since 2012. Democrats secured four trifectas between 1992 and 2023.
The state’s trifecta is rated “not vulnerable” by Ballotpedia, with the governor’s race rated as “likely Republican.” The GOP also has a 12-seat majority in the state Senate and a 20-seat majority in the state House.
Gov. Tate Reeves (R-MS) won the GOP primary election handily on Aug. 8. He will face Brandon Presley in the general election this fall. Reeves is the nation’s fifth-most unpopular governor, receiving a 48% approval and 42% disapproval rating as of October 2022.
Republicans in the Magnolia State have had significant legislative wins over the last session. Reeves signed eight anti-abortion bills into law in April, advancing his “pro-life agenda” that is popular among Republican voters.
One of the most controversial bills from the 2023 legislative session is currently facing review in federal court. House Bill 1020, which took effect on July 1, significantly increases state control over Jackson’s judicial system and policing.
GOP lawmakers say the bill will increase safety in the capital city. However, Democrats have taken issue with the bill, accusing the majority-white and Republican-controlled state Legislature of trying to take control away from Jackson, which is a majority-black city.
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