According to a new AARP poll commissioned by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, Trump is polling ahead of Harris with 49% to Harris’s 47%, 1% voting for another candidate, and 3% undecided. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump is still polling 2 points ahead, getting 50% of the support to Harris’s 48%.

Among voters 50 and older, Trump is leading by 7 points, and he maintains a 14-point lead among voters 50-64. The race is a toss-up among seniors, with the former president polling just 1 point ahead with voters 65 and older.

“Arizona voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” AARP Arizona director Dana Kennedy said.

“If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters 50 and older, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to helping people stay in their homes as they age,” Kennedy continued.

Harris has stronger support among younger and middle-aged voters in the state, maintaining a 6-point lead among those aged 18-49, due in part to her 9-point edge with 18- to 34-year-olds.

As compared to early June when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee, Harris has made up significant ground with Arizona Democrats. Harris has the support of nearly the entirety of the state’s Democratic base with 92%. In June, Biden had the support of 84% of Arizona Democrats.

In June, Trump led Biden by an 8-point margin, a gap which Harris has closed by 6 points. The former president’s lead has narrowed with most demographic groups. He led among voters aged 18-49 in June, but now Harris is up 6 points with them. He still maintains his lead with voters aged 50-64.

In the state’s Senate race between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican Kari Lake, Gallego continues to maintain a strong advantage over Lake. Since June, Gallego has grown his lead by 4 points and has crossed the 50% mark. The poll found Gallego polling at 51% among likely voters to Lake’s 44%.

Trump is polling ahead of Lake in each age group, running 11 points stronger among Republicans than Lake. He has the support of 85% of Republicans while she has 74%.

With Election Day four weeks away, motivation to vote in Arizona has also increased. Voters in Arizona went from 77% saying they were motivated to vote in June to 84% in October.

Methodology: AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research to conduct a survey of voters in Arizona between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1. The poll interviewed 1,358 likely voters, including a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters and an oversample of 470 likely voters aged 50 and older. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The margin of error for the statewide sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points and is plus or minus 3.5 points for the 800 total sample of voters 50 and older.