Trump and Harris both claiming success as universal support for early voting muddies projections – Washington Examiner
The article discusses the early voting landscape as both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris claim positive signs for their respective campaigns. Following skepticism about mail-in voting in 2020, Republicans have adopted it more widely, complicating early projections for the 2024 election. Trump’s team cites improved polling in swing states, suggesting stronger support compared to four years ago. Meanwhile, Harris’s advisers express confidence that their early voting totals align with their victory needs. Both candidates see potential for success, with Democrats noting Trump’s struggles with senior voters in Pennsylvania and Republicans gaining ground in Nevada. Analysts warn against drawing definitive conclusions from early voting patterns, highlighting the uncertainty ahead.
Trump and Harris both claiming success as universal support for early voting muddies projections
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’s teams have both seen promising signs from early voting.
After heavy skepticism in 2020, Republicans have embraced early mail-in voting, making early projections more difficult. Trump and Harris have both found reasons to be hopeful in the early data from mail-in voting.
“President Trump’s position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago,” chief Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote in a Thursday memo obtained by Politico. “While the analysis of early and absentee vote returns in each state are promising, we know that the bulk of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day. So, our continued efforts to turnout our voters are crucial.”
The memo featured the latest RealClearPolitics average, showing Trump with leads in five out of the seven battleground states — enough to pull off a victory.
Harris’s senior adviser, David Plouffe, told CNN that early voting totals line up with their calculations of what they need for victory.
“Our sense is that … the people who’ve made up their mind in the last week, we’re doing quite well with,” he said. “And we like the people who’ve yet to make a decision in terms of who they look like from a data perspective and what they self-report in terms of who they’re likely to vote for. In the early vote so far, we are on pace in all seven states to reach the number we think we need, combined with Election Day turnout.”
Elsewhere, analysts on both sides found even more promising news. Democrats caught onto the news that Trump was lagging with seniors, a key Republican demographic, in early voting in Pennsylvania. In Nevada, Republicans took a clear lead over Democrats.
Election analyst Nate Silver, speaking on Saturday, took both sides’ ability to see victory in the early voting patterns as a sign of the futility of drawing any significant conclusions.
“That the most hackish partisans on both sides invariably think the early voting numbers are great for them tells you all you need to know about the utility of looking at early voting numbers,” Silver said.
According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, as of Friday morning, roughly 66 million people in the United States had already cast their votes.
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