Trump Campaign Reminds Kamala Who’s Really Ahead as Data Shows Her Election Crisis Is Getting Worse
On the eve of an election, Kamala Harris’s campaign was reportedly struggling, a concern echoed by a memo from Donald Trump’s campaign that highlighted significant turnout deficits for Democrats. Tim Saler, a data consultant for the Trump team, analyzed early voting data, indicating that while Republicans were performing well in battleground states, Democrats were facing a decline in urban turnout. Saler claimed that Democrats were misinforming themselves about voter motivation heading into Election Day, pointing out that historical data suggested their voters typically did not turn out as expected. He referenced comments from Democratic strategists expressing worry about the early voting numbers, further emphasizing the potentially problematic situation for Harris’s campaign. The memo noted a notable drop in urban and female voter participation in swing states, with an increase in rural turnout. Many on social media reacted to this memo, highlighting concerns for Democrats and questioning their appeal to certain voter demographics, particularly among blue-collar working-class men.
On the eve of the election, Kamala Harris’ campaign was in trouble. That wasn’t just Donald Trump’s campaign talking. That’s the conclusion reached by one of the Democrats’ own data experts.
In a memo released Monday by the Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team, The Donald’s squad touted the numbers coming out of the opposition as a positive sign of things to come.
“With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit,” wrote Tim Saler, a chief data consultant for Trump campaign.
“In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own ‘data experts’ and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.
“Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, said on MSNBC that ‘the early vote numbers are a little scary,’” he noted. “What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.”
Saler went on to note that the “Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing.
“If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?”
Saler said that voters “don’t need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart,” the numbers aren’t good.
In seven swing states, the memo noted, urban and female voters are down from 2020, and rural turnout in four of them is up:
MEMO: The Democrat Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day pic.twitter.com/oMyRtDOayX
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) November 4, 2024
The numbers made a major splash on social media:
The Trump campaign just released a memo showing early voting data.
Tomorrow might be a blowout. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/mjcP6HqkjK
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) November 4, 2024
🚨NEW @TeamTrump MEMO pic.twitter.com/HfQgaCM49r
— Karoline Leavitt (@kleavittnh) November 4, 2024
The Trump team just d all the early voting data showing that Kamala is in big trouble entering Election Day. Check it out below. https://t.co/eSYmRAcTYC
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 4, 2024
While this fits under the “big if true” umbrella, this is also positive news that tracks with not-infrequent sightings of Democrats on cable news professing to be worried about the results.
They should be. The left’s strengths have limited their appeal among blue-collar working-class male voters. If they end up rejecting Kamala Harris, Democrats have nobody but themselves to blame for it.
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