Trump economic agenda would increase deficit by more than $4 trillion: Analysis – Washington Examiner
Former President Donald Trump’s economic proposals, including tax cuts and spending plans, are projected to increase the federal deficit by over $4 trillion over the next decade, according to a new analysis from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania. The analysis indicates that Trump’s tax cut proposals could reduce government revenue by approximately $5.8 trillion.
Key aspects of Trump’s agenda include extending individual and business tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, and lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. Collectively, these proposals contribute significantly to the anticipated deficit increase: extending the TCJA would add $3.4 trillion, eliminating Social Security taxes would contribute $1.2 trillion, and lowering the corporate tax rate would account for $595 billion.
While the analysis forecasts GDP growth in the short term, it warns of a potential long-term decline in GDP, with projections indicating a drop of 0.4% by 2034 and 2.1% over 30 years. The report notes that while households across various income levels may benefit in the near term from the proposed tax cuts, the debt burden would ultimately fall on future generations.
Additionally, not all elements of Trump’s economic agenda were fully analyzed; some proposals, such as a 10% tariff on imports and tax treatment of tips, require further detail for a comprehensive assessment. As economic issues dominate the campaign trail for Republicans, the urgency to renew expiring TCJA provisions is emphasized, especially given the implication of potential tax increases for middle-class voters if these provisions expire.
Trump economic agenda would increase deficit by more than $4 trillion: Analysis
Former President Donald Trump’s tax and spending proposals would increase the deficit by more than $4 trillion over the next decade, according to a new analysis.
Trump’s plans for tax cuts would see revenues fall by $5.8 trillion over the next decade, according to the estimate from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, a group housed at the University of Pennsylvania’s business school that analyzes the fiscal effects of public policies. Under current law, the government is supposed to take in about $63 trillion in revenues, according to congressional projections.
On a dynamic basis, though, meaning an analysis that takes into consideration the added economic growth from the tax cuts, deficits are forecast to increase by $4.1 trillion.
Among the economic proposals that were modeled is Trump’s call to extend expiring individual and business portions of his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, better known as the Trump tax cuts. He also wants to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits and has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%.
“Permanently extending the expiring individual income tax provisions of TCJA would add $3.4 trillion to deficits (before interest costs) over the next ten years,” the report says. “Restoring the original TCJA regime for taxing business investment adds another $623 billion to increase the total cost of TCJA extension to more than $4 trillion.”
Trump recently floated the idea of eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors. Seniors receiving Social Security income pay taxes on 50% of their income from the program, and in some cases, as high as 85% if their combined income from other sources pushes them above a certain threshold.
The budget model found that the additional cost of eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits is $1.2 trillion over the decade and the additional cost of lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% would be $595 billion.
The report found that the Trump economic agenda would increase gross domestic product growth from the baseline over the coming 10 years, although, in 2034, GDP is forecast to fall by 0.4% and would fall by 2.1% in 30 years.
“Low, middle, and high-income households in 2026 and 2034 all fare better under the campaign proposals on a conventional basis,” the report says. “These conventional gains and losses do not include the additional debt burden on future generations who must finance almost the entirety of the tax decreases.”
But not all of Trump’s economic agenda was examined by the Penn-Wharton model. The forecast didn’t include the idea of imposing 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports or Trump’s push to not tax tips earned by servers and bartenders. That is because a significant number of additional details about the plans would be needed to sufficiently model their long-run economic footprint.
The economy has been the biggest matter on the campaign trail. Republicans are pushing to win Congress and the White House in order to renew expiring provisions of the Trump tax cuts. A large chunk of middle-class voters would experience tax increases if the 2017 law is allowed to completely expire.
Budget hawks have raised concerns about the policy proposals of both Republicans and Democrats and have warned that further increasing the national debt and deficits could put the United States on a precarious fiscal footing.
Last month, the total national debt hit the milestone of $35 trillion.
Debt held by the public, which is separate from the national debt in that it excludes intragovernmental holdings of federal debt, is predicted to rise from 99% of gross domestic product this year to 122% of GDP by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The Medicare trust fund is forecast to be exhausted in 2036, and the combined Social Security trust fund will become exhausted in 2035, the program’s trustees projected in May.
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