Trump flips 2020 electoral vote, leads in four forecasts – Washington Examiner
The summary discusses former President Donald Trump’s perspective on electoral forecasts due to his past skepticism about the Electoral College’s reliability, highlighted by the controversies surrounding the 2020 election and the January 6 Capitol riot. Despite these reservations, Trump’s campaign is paying close attention to electoral predictions as they show him leading against President Joe Biden, approaching the required 270 electoral votes to win. There’s a tight national public opinion race, but Trump holds an advantage in key battleground states, increasing his campaign’s confidence in winning. Consequently, Biden’s campaign is spending heavily on advertisements in these critical areas to improve his standing. The summary includes specific forecasts showing Trump’s lead in the electoral vote prediction, suggesting a favorable outcome for him in the upcoming election.
Considering the distrust he aired about the Electoral College voting in 2020 and the blame laid at his feet for the Jan. 6 Capitol riot over the electoral vote count, it would be no surprise if former President Donald Trump’s team had little use for electoral forecasts.
But they are focused on them, and the reason is simple and obvious: In four major electoral vote counts, Trump is leading by as many as 66, just two shy of President Joe Biden’s margin of victory in 2020, 306-232. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
National public opinion polls have long shown a race stuck at even with few exceptions. Those, however, are becoming less important to watch than the surveys in key battleground states where the electoral vote matters.
There, Trump has a lead, giving the Trump team greater confidence in victory in the fall and prompting Biden’s campaign to spend millions on advertising to catch up.
“Joe Biden and his allies have been spending tens of millions in attack ads there,” Republican pollster John McLaughlin said.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Presidential Election Forecast
1. @TheEconomist (Electoral College)
🟥 Trump: 302 🏆
🟦 Biden: 236Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 70%
🟦 Biden: 30%
——
2. @jhkersting Forecast (Electoral College)🟥 Trump: 287 🏆
🟦 Biden: 251Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 62%
🟦… pic.twitter.com/2W97PRMKvc— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 24, 2024
“For weeks, Joe Biden has visited these states while his henchmen have had President Trump tied up in Manhattan,” he said.
“In spite of it all, the polls have President Trump winning the battleground states, and if anything, the battleground has expanded to Virginia, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Maine — maybe even New York,” he added.
McLaughlin said Biden’s offer to debate Trump was likely a move to shake up the race and help the president catch up in the battleground states, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
“Why else would incumbent Joe Biden want to debate? If President Trump keeps winning, I’m sure [New York hush money case] Judge Juan Merchan will get his orders to put President Trump in jail. President Trump is winning a historic battle,” McLaughlin added.
Trump holds his widest electoral advantage in an Economist analysis. He leads in that survey 302-236. The analysis gives Trump a 70% chance of winning in November.
In a Decision Desk forecast, Trump leads 282-256 and has a 58% chance of winning.
JHK Forecasts puts his electoral lead at 36, 287-251. In that, he has a 62% chance of winning the White House back.
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And in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Trump is just winning, with 270 electoral votes to Biden’s 268.
Even Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia and a Trump critic has the Republican up. The school’s Center for Politics “crystal ball” has Trump leading Biden 251-241.
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