Trump Has an Incredible Weekend, Surges Into Lead for First Time in Multiple Major Election Forecasts
As the November 5 general election approaches, recent polling trends signal a potential shift in favor of former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate. Notably, forecasts indicate that Trump has regained a lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris, a notable change from earlier in the campaign when Harris appeared to have momentum after securing the Democratic nomination.
Recent surveys, including those from The Economist and The Hill, suggest that Trump’s support has surged in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan, contributing to an overall polling advantage. This newfound lead, while slight, gives Trump a 54% chance of winning according to some models. The political landscape remains dynamic, with both candidates facing challenges in cementing their leads. Harris, who was once favored, has struggled to maintain her position as voter engagement declines.
While Trump’s supporters may view this as positive news, experts caution that the election remains too close to call and any lead could be tenuous. The outcome is still uncertain as both candidates work to solidify their positions just weeks before election day.
October isn’t quite over yet, so there’s still plenty of time for a few political “surprises” as America barrels towards the Nov. 5 general election.
And this particular surprise is likely to leave the Republican presidential candidate — former President Donald Trump — grinning from ear-to-ear.
The GOP standard bearer enjoyed some great news over the weekend, when a number of prominent election forecasts simultaneously tilted in Trump’s favor.
This news comes as Trump’s chief political rival, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, has officially seen her highly manufactured momentum stall out.
Recall, thanks largely to putting her in Tupperware for as long as possible, Democrats were enjoying a surge of momentum and positive polling numbers when Vice President Harris (by hook and mostly crook) officially transplanted incumbent President Joe Biden atop the Democrats’ presidential ticket in late July.
But then, as soon as voters actually got to know Harris, things have gradually unraveled — as these polls clearly attest to.
According to The Economist‘s polling, Trump has taken the lead “as polls swing away” from Harris.
“For the first time in two months Donald Trump has taken the lead in our model, which now gives him a 54 in 100 chance of winning the election,” The Economist reported. “Just as national polls showed many undecided and third-party voters choosing Kamala Harris in August, some of the remaining ones — possibly Republican leaners all along — have recently lined up behind Mr Trump.”
The Hill, very much a Democrat-friendly outfit, had similar findings in its own polling.
The outlet reported that Trump “has gained a lead in polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, adding to his existing advantages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina,” making him “a slight favorite” to win the presidential election.
(In keeping with its pro-Democrat tones, The Hill’s report made sure to include plenty of warning that Harris is well within striking distance, but more on this in a bit.)
Polling and data aggregation site 538 noted, “[f]or the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris.”
More so, the man who helped create 538, Nate Silver — who has since moved on to do his own thing — made similar findings in his data models:
Today’s update.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/nnmpy6e0Lp
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 17, 2024
Silver said that this was Trump’s first lead within his modeling since September. He also noted, however, that this is still very much a toss-up of an election akin to a razor-thin margin in a hotly contested sports match-up.
This is all undoubtedly good news for Trump (you’d certainly rather be up by a small margin than down by a small margin just weeks before the Nov. 5 election), but both he and his supporters would be wise not to take this late lead for granted.
As all the above polling shows, Trump’s lead is decidedly not an insurmountable one. For as infuriating as it is, Harris’ Tupperware trick has worked on a large number of American voters — a slim lead may as well be considered a slim trail in this political climate.
The polling lead — even one so close to the election — does not guarantee anything come election day.
But good news is good news, and Trump will get to enjoy it after a whirlwind weekend of excitement.
Harris? She may be in striking distance, but there is mounting evidence that she has no idea how to actually close that slim gap.
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