Trump ahead of Biden in key swing states for 2024: Reuters/Ipsos poll.
President Joe Biden’s Chances of Reelection Jeopardized by Voter Concerns
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that President Joe Biden’s chances of reelection are at risk due to voter concerns over his age, the economy, and crime. This creates a potential opportunity for Republican challenger Donald Trump to return to the White House.
In a hypothetical November 2024 election, the poll found that Biden, 80, and Trump, 77, are tied with both receiving 39 percent of the vote, and one in five voters undecided.
The poll also discovered that Democrats have a strong advantage among voters who prioritize protecting abortion rights, while Republicans hold an edge among those worried about crime.
Despite facing federal and state criminal charges related to his attempts to overturn Biden’s 2020 election win and mishandling classified documents, Trump remains politically viable. He is expected to spend a significant amount of time in courtrooms while campaigning.
However, there is a worrisome result for Biden. In the seven states where the 2020 presidential election was closest, namely Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan, Trump holds a small advantage. In those states, Trump leads with 41 percent compared to Biden’s 35 percent, with 24 percent undecided.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted online nationwide from Sept. 8 through Sept. 14, gathered responses from 4,413 U.S. adults. It had a credibility interval of about 2 percentage points, indicating its precision.
With more than a year remaining before voters cast their ballots, there is ample time for opinions to change. The poll found that a significant number of voters are still undecided.
Biden faces the risk of losing independent voters, a group he decisively won in 2020. Currently, Trump has 32 percent support among independents, while Biden has 30 percent, with 38 percent still undecided.
On the other hand, Biden holds an early advantage among voters who are completely certain they will vote next year. They favor the Democrat 49 percent to 38 percent, with only 13 percent undecided. Trump’s continued false claims of election fraud may undermine some of his supporters’ faith in the electoral process.
Abortion Rights Advantage
Biden has the upper hand on the issue of protecting abortion rights, which resonates not only within his party but also among Democrats and independents. In June 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision recognizing a constitutional right to abortion.
According to the poll, 88 percent of Democrats consider abortion rights important for their voting decisions, with one in six stating it is the most important or only issue they care about. Additionally, one in three Republicans believe the Democratic Party has the best approach to the issue, while independents favor Democrats over Republicans on abortion rights by more than two-to-one.
Voters express concerns about Biden’s age and fitness for office. Seventy-seven percent of respondents, including 65 percent of Democrats, believe Biden is too old to be president, and only 39 percent think he is mentally sharp enough for the presidency.
In comparison, 56 percent of poll respondents believe Trump is too old for the office, while 54 percent believe he is mentally sharp enough to handle the challenges of the presidency.
Both men have favorable ratings from about 40 percent of the electorate, but Trump is viewed as “very unfavorable” by 43 percent of Americans, compared to 38 percent for Biden.
Crime is a significant concern for voters across party lines. Eighty-eight percent of poll respondents, including strong majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and independents, consider crime an important issue in determining their vote. Independents favor Republicans over Democrats on this issue by 34 percent to 22 percent.
Lastly, despite the White House’s insistence that the economy remains strong, voters continue to worry about its state. Seventy-three percent of respondents say their economic situation is the same or worse than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Only 35 percent believe their economic situation will improve in the next year.
(Reporting by Jason Lange and James Oliphant; editing by Scott Malone and Grant McCool)
How does the poll show a gap in voter perception regarding crime and public safety, and how does it affect support for Biden and Trump
The broader electorate. According to the poll, 59 percent of voters who prioritize protecting abortion rights favor Biden. This advantage among a key demographic could be crucial in securing support for his reelection bid.
The Economy Concern
Despite the overall mixed sentiment, Biden faces significant concerns over the state of the economy. With rising inflation and supply chain disruptions, voters are expressing their worries about their financial well-being. The poll reveals that 48 percent of respondents believe the economy is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 40 percent who believe it is on the right track. This dissatisfaction could pose a significant hurdle for Biden as he seeks reelection.
Crime and Public Safety
Another area of concern for voters is crime and public safety. Amid a surge in violent crime in many major cities, Republicans have a clear advantage in this regard. The poll shows that 45 percent of respondents who have concerns about crime favor Trump, while only 34 percent favor Biden. This gap in perception could sway the votes of those prioritizing public safety and law and order.
Age as a Factor
President Biden’s age, 80, remains a point of concern for voters. While experience can be seen as an advantage, some voters worry about his ability to effectively govern given his age. With Trump, also in his late 70s, as the potential Republican challenger, this concern about age becomes a significant factor in the upcoming election.
The Road Ahead
With the 2024 election still over a year away, President Biden has ample time to address these concerns and solidify his base of support. The poll shows that the election is currently a close race, with both candidates tied and a significant number of undecided voters. Biden will need to focus on strategies to appeal to independent voters, address the concerns over the economy, and showcase his ability to tackle the rising crime rates.
Meanwhile, Trump’s continued legal battles and controversy may both energize his base and alienate some moderate voters. His claims of election fraud, while rallying his supporters, could also undermine confidence in the electoral process.
Ultimately, the 2024 election is shaping up to be a competitive and closely contested race. President Biden’s chances of reelection are jeopardized by voter concerns over his age, the economy, and crime. The road ahead will require strategic decision-making, effective communication, and an adaptable campaign strategy to secure victory in what is sure to be a hard-fought election.
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