Trump aims to reclaim Pennsylvania through strategic campaigning in key swing counties

Former President Donald Trump will head back to Pennsylvania on Saturday to campaign in certain swing districts in an attempt to repeat his win of the state in 2016.

Trump is expected to make stops in Lehigh Valley, and the Philadelphia suburb of Bucks County for a fundraiser and a rally. His stop in Lehigh Valley falls in the state’s seventh district, which is considered highly competitive but is currently held by Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA).

Another swing county, which will likely be the most watched, is Lackawanna County, where Trump won in 2016, but President Joe Biden won in 2020. The county seat is Scranton, Pennsylvania, where Biden was born. The president is expected to return there on Tuesday for another speech on the economy.

The visits come after Democrats have seen large victories across the state in recent elections, including winning a closely watched Senate race in 2022. The other Senate seat is up for grabs this November, with Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) facing the toughest reelection campaign of his career. Biden also flipped the state back to Democrats in 2020.

Despite the Democratic victories, Republicans in the state believe they stand a chance of winning it back for Trump, and several key components could swing the state in his favor.

The first is voter registration, which has seen more registered Republican voters in the state than Democrats. There are currently 25,593 Republicans automatically registered in the state, while 22,528 Democrats are registered, according to data from Pennsylvania’s Department of State as of April 10. However, there are 22,822 voters listed as “other.”

“I’m very bullish on the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania,” Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist and former gubernatorial candidate, told the Hill. “The Republicans have managed to dramatically decrease the Democrat registration in Pennsylvania.”

Another component is the priority of voters when it comes to things on the ballot. Democrats have homed in on the topics of abortion, and the future of democracy in the country as major issues this election cycle. But Republicans in the state claim that some of the biggest issues are the economy, and immigration.

“I don’t get the sense that democracy is on the ballot,” David Urban, who was an adviser for Trump in the state for the 2016 election, said. “I think when people are fearful that they can’t fill their tank or take their kids on vacation this summer, I’m not sure that democracy really matters. That’s a concept. It’s a fuzzy concept versus, hey, I can’t pay my bills. That’s not a fuzzy concept.”

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The final threat to Biden this November, and a big hope for Trump, is the role of third-party candidates. Jill Stein, who pulled votes from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, is running for the Green Party again. But Robert F. Kennedy Jr., could end up a larger spoiler candidate if he makes it on the state ballot this year.

“If Kennedy gets on the ballot, he’s going to do very well in the state,” GOP strategist Vince Galko said. “He can be the spoiler in this thing for Biden. Whether he gets to two, three, four, five, six percent, I don’t know but that could be a huge difference in the vote.”