When Trump left the White House in January 2021 weeks after a violent mob stormed the Capitol and he was receiving universal condemnation from members of his own party, his approval rating dipped to 34%, according to Gallup.

The Republican nominee’s favorability rating is now up nearly 10 points to 43.7%, according to averages of the latest polling. He’s survived two impeachments, faced criminal charges four times, a criminal conviction, two assassination attempts, and an eleventh-hour opponent switch from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris. His resurgence is now one of the most unlikely examples of political staying power the country has ever seen.

“If you look at his image around the country, he’s never been stronger despite everything that has been thrown at him,” said Zack Roday, a Republican strategist. 

Roday explained the image of Trump emerging from his first assassination attempt, his fist clenched with blood across his face, illustrates his resilience, and “fight, fight, fight” has now become a rallying cry with his supporters.

“I’ve been in a lot of focus groups and I’ve been out in a lot of the battlegrounds and I’ve been around a lot of voters, that image, that fight, fight, fight mentality, it’s who he is.

“I think it will only kind of underscore his appeal and his strength and it’ll allow him to be even more effective at governing,” Roday added.

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Four years ago, Trump’s political future was in serious trouble. He had just lost an election and judges were tossing out his legal challenges. A rally in which he urged his supporters to march to the U.S. Capitol when lawmakers were certifying the results of the election turned violent. In response, a wave of Trump administration officials quit in protes, including Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos.  

In the aftermath, some of his closest allies were speaking out against him. At one time, then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy had said Trump “bears responsibility” for the violence. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also spoke out.

“All I can say is count me out,” he said, speaking on the Senate floor. “Enough is enough.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) had called Trump’s actions on Jan. 6 “a disgraceful dereliction of duty.” 

However, Trump’s exile was short-lived. McCarthy took a trip down to Palm Beach, Florida, while the Democratic-controlled Senate was preparing to hold Trump’s second impeachment trial. Ultimately, the Senate would vote to acquit Trump, with the majority of Republicans voting against a conviction.

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“Jan. 6, I’ve never met anyone that said, ‘Boy, that was a wonderful day.’ Never heard anyone say that,” said Brian Kirwin, a Republican strategist based in Virginia. 

“Universally, even on the Republican side, people had the strong opinion that that is too far,” he said.

After a disappointing midterm election cycle in 2022 when Democrats took control of the Senate after many of the candidates Trump endorsed lost their races, some thought that could be the end of the former president’s reign over the Republican Party.

“Some of us then were calling on Trump to step aside privately. Many of these races should have been easy wins for Republicans with record inflation and President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings. He was an unreliable kingmaker that cycle and I still believe he should not be the leader of our party,” an adviser to a Republican senator said, who did not want to be identified. 

Roday also admits the 2022 midterm elections were perhaps one of the lowest moments for Trump.

“There was a small moment where after 2022, a tough midterm for Republicans, where it should have been better. There was an opening for perhaps a [Ron] DeSantis but then the door was slammed shut.”

Trump’s luck surprisingly began to turn, starting with the FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago home for sensitive national security documents in August 2023. Millions of Republican voters began to view Trump’s legal troubles as a proxy attack on them. The criminal charges began to act as a political asset. His mug shot taken at an Atlanta jail in 2023 would soon be printed on campaign T-shirts, yard signs, and mugs.

“If Democrats don’t win the White House in ‘24, they have nowhere else to look but themselves, with what they have done going after somebody, who for the most part, for a whole range of issues, nobody else would be prosecuted for,” Roday said. “It brings it to life where his supporters are just going to stay with him and more people are rallying to his side as well.”

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In May 2024, a Manhattan jury convicted Trump on 34 felony counts involving hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. However, many of his legal setbacks came with victories. The Supreme Court ruled that presidents have immunity for official acts, which became a challenge for the 2020 interference case to move forward. The case in which Trump was accused of mishandling confidential documents in Florida was discarded. 

“All these phony charges just make me want to vote for him even more,” said John Stewart, 65, a voter from Salem, Virginia, wearing a shirt that said “I’m voting for the convicted felon.” 

Even Congress has been remade in Trump’s image. McConnell, who has been a critic of Trump, announced he’d be stepping down as Senate leader in November. Only two of the 10 Republicans in the House who joined all Democrats in voting to impeach the former president for inciting the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol are still serving in Congress, and both are facing tough reelections this cycle. Only two senators will remain in office next year who who voted to convict Trump: Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME).

“Let’s just think about how many careers Trump has directly ended or caused politicos to just exit the stage because they realized they had no future,” said Dennis Lennox, a Michigan-based Republican strategist. 

“All the consultants out there that were sort of establishmentarians who only ever lost races, the Bushes, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney. He disrupted and then remade the Republican Party into a new coalition that’s still working itself out,” he added. “Make no mistake, if he pulls this off, it will be the greatest political comeback in American history.”

A turning point came after he was grazed with an assassin’s bullet in Pennsylvania ahead of the Republican National Convention. He arrived in Milwaukee a day later with a hero’s welcome. Delegates on the convention floor put bandages over their ears, standing in solidarity with the injured Trump.

Donald “Whitey” Taylor, who owns a Trump megastore in rural Virginia, said his store in a town of about 250 people was flooded with fans looking to buy merchandise.

“The first assassination attempt, we had over 2,500 people to come in that day in the rain,” Taylor said. “If it hadn’t been raining — there’s no telling how many we would have had. There was a line out the door. People were coming in all day.” 

His supporters say the assassination attempts made them even more determined to get him elected. 

“We’ve seen a lot of people starting to support Trump just because of the assassination attempts — that alone. His resilience is incredible,” said Judy Cornell, 73, from Buckeye, Arizona.

Rebecca Bain, 77, from Salem, Virginia also describes the assassination attempts as a test that has shown he “has the energy to lead this country,”

“I think he is a very determined man that has a lot of stamina. He has the energy to lead this country, and I’m very pleased with how he’s come through each of the obstacles that have been thrown at him,” she said. “I think he has stood tall, and sometimes I’d like him to watch his mouth a little bit. But I think he is a very capable man at leading this country.

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Speaking to voters in his final weekend of campaigning, Trump vocalized the strength of the movement he has created over nearly a decade.

“This is the greatest political movement in the history of our country, probably in the history of the world,” Trump said, speaking to voters in Salem, Virginia on Saturday. “If we win this election, it will go down, and you’re a big part of it — equal to me, as far as I’m concerned — if we win this election, it’ll go down as the greatest political event in the history of our country.”