Trump times vice presidential announcement for maximum impact

Former President Donald Trump‘s vice presidential nominee used to be one of the only unknown variables in his 2024 election rematch against President Joe Biden, excluding Trump’s legal entanglements.

But with the first sitting congressional Democrat calling on Biden to stand aside as the party’s presumptive nominee before next month’s convention in Chicago, Trump may delay his vice presidential announcement so it does not step on Biden’s negative news coverage.

Delaying Trump’s vice presidential announcement “makes sense” because some Democrats are “in the process of burning down the Biden campaign,” with the “sad truth” that Biden is “not up to the job” after his debate performance last week, according to Republican strategist Cesar Conda, chief domestic policy officer adviser to former Vice President Dick Cheney and onetime chief of staff to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).

“VP picks generate positive buzz and excite the party faithful at the conventions, so it might make sense to roll out the pick during or just before the convention,” Conda told the Washington Examiner. “After the pick is made, the picks usually fade into the background until the VP debate.”

Republican strategist John Feehery agreed it was “wise” for Trump to “wait,” with the former president previously indicating he would make the announcement before this month’s GOP convention in Milwaukee. There had also been speculation that Trump could have made the announcement after last week’s debate had he not performed well, but Biden’s performance overshadowed his in their matchup’s aftermath.

“The media is desperate to change the subject so it is pretty wise to wait,” Feehery, a partner at lobbying firm EFB Advocacy, told the Washington Examiner.

With a post-debate CNN poll published Tuesday finding that Vice President Kamala Harris is 2 percentage points behind Trump, compared to Biden, who is 6 points behind his predecessor, Feehery contended, “We don’t know yet if Biden is going to survive this.”

“Trump might be running against Kamala, so they could change the equation on who would be the best VP choice,” he said. “I don’t really have a great analysis on who would be the best choice for VP other than somebody who helps Trump shore up his biggest weaknesses, which in my mind are abortion and Trump’s own advanced age.”

Since 1984 for Democrats and 1996 for Republicans, first-time vice presidential announcements have happened one day to about three weeks before their respective party’s convention, according to vice presidential scholar Joel Goldstein, a Saint Louis University School of Law professor emeritus.

“An example of timing affecting the choice was Sen. [John] McCain’s announcement of Gov. Sarah Palin in 2008 right after the Democratic convention ended to blunt Sen. [Barack] Obama’s convention bounce,” Goldstein told the Washington Examiner. “One of the most effective VP announcements was Bill Clinton’s announcement of Al Gore in 1992.”

Claremont McKenna College politics professor John Pitney Jr. downplayed the likelihood of a vice presidential announcement changing the dynamics of the Biden-Trump race but that, “as a showman,” “Trump wants every media edge he can get.”

“He’ll wait until his choice isn’t in the shadow of a bigger story,” Pitney told the Washington Examiner.

But Pitney, a former Republican operative, did have opinions on Trump’s vice presidential short list, which includes Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Rubio.

Pitney described Burgum’s strengths as his experience as a governor and millionaire technology entrepreneur, adding that “he looks the part, which greatly appeals to Trump.” Simultaneously, the governor is “dull and largely unknown,” but “that would not really hurt in November,” he said.

Rubio has “run for president before and is comfortable discussing issues,” in addition to assisting Trump “with some Hispanic voters, though a Spanish-fluent Cuban American won’t necessarily draw a lot of Mexican American voters,” Pitney continued. But as Pitney noted, Trump “mercilessly mocked” the senator as “Little Marco” in 2016 and the “mean tweets” will be “easy pickings for Democrats.” He would have to change his voting residence from Florida as well.

Pitney referred to Vance as “smart,” “articulate,” and a veteran “who has written about his personal debt to the Marine Corps.”

“As Robert DeNiro said in Heat, ‘There is a flip side to that coin,’” he said. “With his youth and Ivy League pedigree, he could draw favorable comparisons to Trump, who hates being upstaged. …  And some voters might take offense at Vance’s comment that ‘I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.’”

Trump’s overriding consideration for a vice presidential nominee should be: Is that person capable of being president, according to Conda.

“I worked in the vice president’s office and think the names vetted all are up to the task and would be great picks,” the founding partner of Navigators Global, an all-Republican lobbying firm, said. “Compare the vetted names to Biden’s failed pick of former Sen. Kamala Harris that pandered to gender and racial politics.

“The bottom line is the Biden campaign is crashing and burning before our eyes,” he went on. “Now is not the time for Republicans to distract from the dumpster fire that is the Democratic Party today.”

The Trump campaign underscored how the former president “has said himself, the top criteria in selecting a vice president is a strong leader who will make a great president for eight years after his next four-year term concludes.”

“Anyone telling you they know who or when President Trump will choose his VP is lying unless that person is named Donald J. Trump,” Trump senior adviser Brian Hughes told the Washington Examiner.

This week carries on a positive post-debate news cycle for Trump, such as the Supreme Court finding that presidents have immunity for official acts. The court’s decision has resulted in another delay, this time the sentencing in his New York hush money trial, which was scheduled to take place next week but is now set for September.

Meanwhile, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) became the first Democratic member of Congress to call on Biden to step down as the party’s nominee after the debate.

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In the spin room after the debate, Vance criticized Democrats seeking to replace Biden on their ticket as hypocritical as they claim Trump is undermining “democracy.”

“What would be a bigger threat to democracy than taking a candidate post-primary when millions of people, Democratic primary voters, have already voted and try to replace him at a convention with a few 100 Democratic elites?” he told the Washington Examiner. “That is the biggest threat to democracy that’s been contemplated in American government in the last few years. And of course, the Democrats are doing it without a hint of shame.”