Trump leads in two post-conviction surveys

Two 2024 voter tracking polls taken after former President Donald Trump was convicted of 34 counts last week showed that the Republican has maintained an edge over President Joe Biden, demonstrating it is going to take more than a court case to shake up the election.

First out on Tuesday was a Morning Consult survey showing Biden dropping 2 points to 43% and Trump steady at 44%.

“Biden posted his best support among Democratic voters (88%) since April, but he continues to underperform Trump among their respective supporters from 2020 (84% to 90%),” the poll analysis said.

The second out was from Rasmussen Reports, which showed a slight dip in support for Trump but a healthy lead over Biden, 48%-43%. Prior to the conviction in the hush money trial, Trump held an 8-point lead.

“Both Trump and Biden retain the overwhelming support of their party base, but Trump has a double-digit advantage among independent voters,” Rasmussen’s analysis said.

“In the two-way matchup, 84% of Republicans would vote for Trump, while 82% of Democrats would vote for Biden. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump gets 49% to Biden’s 34% in a two-way contest,” Rasmussen added.

Both surveys confirmed several pre-conviction polls that Trump and Biden voters planned to stick with their candidate no matter the outcome.

Few, however, have looked at what Republicans dismissive of Trump planned to do. Many supported former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley in the primaries, even after she bowed out of the race.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake has looked into those voters, many of whom are women and suburbanites, Trump’s toughest crowd. At a special briefing Monday night for Win With Women of Washington State, Lake said she expected the verdict to make a “big difference” in their support for Trump.

“Number one, there are about 17% to 20% of Republicans who say they will not vote for someone convicted of a felony. These are the people that were uncommitted. These are the people that were Haley voters,” Lake said.

“Even if it’s half of that, that could be 6% of the electorate. This race is going to be close,” Lake said.

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The longtime pollster, who has worked with the Biden team, said the right messaging by Democrats could have an impact on the Haley supporters to keep them from voting for Trump, though she said it is unlikely they will take the next step and switch to Biden.

“I think this can become a major part of a character contrast. And in the end, I think the character contrast is going to be one of the most important things to determine the vote,” Lake told the group in a Zoom meeting.