Trump victory goes from sure thing to ‘toss-up’ in major poll reversal – Washington Examiner
A recent analysis by elections expert Nate Silver indicates that the upcoming presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has shifted from a predicted assured victory for Trump to a “toss-up.” Initially, Silver’s model suggested Trump had a 66% chance of winning against President Biden. However, following Biden’s decision to nominate Harris as his successor, Silver revised the odds, placing Trump at 54.9% and Harris at 44.6%. This change reflects a narrowing margin that makes the race more competitive. Silver cautioned Democrats not to become overly confident, as the current polling might represent only a temporary spike in enthusiasm for Harris, emphasizing that the election remains uncertain.
Trump victory goes from sure thing to ‘toss-up’ in major poll reversal
Former President Donald Trump is no longer guaranteed a victory against Vice President Kamala Harris this November, according to a major polling guru.
After President Joe Biden passed the Democratic torch to Harris earlier this month, Nate Silver, an acclaimed elections analyst and statistician, released an election model predicting Trump would clinch an Electoral College win on Nov. 5 against the vice president.
This week, the pollster backtracked his prediction.
“The presidential election is a toss-up,” Silver said in a press release to his Substack blog Silver Bulletin on Thursday afternoon.
“As of this afternoon’s model run, Harris’s odds had improved to 44.6%, as compared to 54.9% for Trump and a 0.5% chance of an Electoral College deadlock,” Silver wrote.
“It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks,” he continued.
Silver’s 54.9% odds for Trump are down from the former president’s 66% chances of winning the election in June when he was campaigning against Biden.
While Silver said Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than her boss did, the pollster warned Democrats that the election is far from decided.
“Democrats shouldn’t get too out over their skis about this,” Silver said on Substack.
He added the new polling could simply be “Harris’s high-water mark,” reflecting only “a temporary surge of Democratic enthusiasm.”
Silver believes that with “the election [in] Kamala-mode,” it continues to be “far from clear whose position you’d rather be in, and I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump.”
The creator of FiveThirtyEight, a prominent polling organization, Silver gained recognition for successfully predicting 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. He also accurately forecasted former President Barack Obama’s victory over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012.
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