Poll Shows Trump Gaining Support Among New York Independents, Narrowing Gap in Deep Blue State

A new poll found former President Trump is actually positioned to make the deep blue state of New York — which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 40 years — competitive in the November presidential election.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 survey released Thursday showed President Biden’s lead in a two-way matchup has shrunk to only seven percentage points, 48-41. With third-party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein on the ballot, Biden’s lead shrank to six points: 44-38. Forty-eight percent of the voters surveyed were registered Democrats; 23% Republican, and 29% independents. Forty-six percent of voters surveyed came from New York City.

“Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated.

President Biden’s job approval among voters in the survey languished at 39%; 50% disapproved of how he is handling the presidency.

The last time a GOP presidential candidate won New York was in President Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984, when he beat Democratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale in 49 states and won New York by eight points.

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Democrats’ victories in New York since Reagan have almost universally been lopsided. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 22.5 points in New York; Biden defeated Trump by 23.2 points in 2020. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in New York by 28 points; he defeated John McCain by 26 points in 2008. In 2004. John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 18 points in New York; in 2000 Al Gore defeated Bush by 25 points. In 1996, Bill Clinton defeated Robert Dole by nearly 30 points; in 1992, Clinton defeated George H. W, Bush by roughly 16 points. In 1988, despite losing the general election by eight points in the popular vote and a massive electoral blowout, 426-111, Michael Dukakis defeated George H. W. Bush by four points in New York.

A mid-April Siena College poll found Biden leading by 10 points in New York.

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