Trump wins, Ann Selzer loses – Washington Examiner
The article discusses the influence of pollster Ann Selzer and her polling methodology, particularly regarding Iowa politics. The author argues that Selzer’s polls tend to skew in favor of Democratic candidates, undermining their credibility. They cite specific examples from recent elections, such as the 2018 gubernatorial race and the 2020 Senate race, where Selzer’s predictions did not align with actual outcomes, leading to Republican victories despite her polls indicating otherwise. The author contends that Selzer has acknowledged the power of her polls to energize voters, yet questions why the same effect doesn’t apply to Democrats, suggesting a bias in her polling. Ultimately, the article calls for Iowa politics to move away from relying on Selzer and the Des Moines Register for accurate polling data.
Trump wins, Ann Selzer loses
It’s time for Iowa politics to abandon Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register.
For too long, we have let Ann Selzer use her polls to influence races. She is fully aware that her polls can influence voters. She said it herself in a guest column she wrote after the election, where she said: “I told more than one news outlet that the findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory.”
If the poll can energize Republican voters, why can’t it do the same for Democrats? Ann Selzer, in her own words, just admitted her polls can affect election results.
The Des Moines Register called it a “rare miss” for Ann Selzer, which is an oxymoron. For those who have been paying attention over the past decade, including myself, you will realize Ann Selzer has a trend in her polls — and it’s to boost Democrats.
In the 2018 governor’s race, Selzer had Fred Hubbell up by 2 percentage points in September, 43%-41%. In the final November poll, she had Hubbell up 46%-44%. The result? Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) won by 3 points.
In the 2020 Senate race, Selzer had Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) behind Theresa Greenfield by 3 points in June and 3 points in September. Then, in the final October poll, Ernst was “suddenly” up 4 points. The result? Joni Ernst won by 7 points. This particular race was not a matter of her being wrong in the end — it’s about her manufacturing fake support for a Democratic candidate.
In the 2022 attorney general race, the October Selzer poll had Thomas John Miller up by 16 points on Brenna Bird. The result? Brenna Bird won by a point, meaning Selzer was off by 17 points.
In the presidential caucuses, she was wrong twice. In 2012, Selzer had Mitt Romney winning with 24% while having Rick Santorum at 15%. The result? Santorum finished with 25%. In 2016, Selzer had Donald Trump at 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 23%, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 15%. The result? Cruz won with 28%, Trump finished with 24%, and Rubio finished with 23%.
There is no “rare miss” for Ann Selzer. Not only did she disrespect Iowa and our voters, but she caused Iowa to be laughed at by the entire country. Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register lost any shred of credibility they have left. Having Harris up 3 points is professional malpractice. Any pollster who is off by 17 points should never be trusted again. So when will the Democratic Party abandon Ann Selzer?
Jeff Kaufmann is the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party.
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