Trump’s Election Odds Surge Suddenly, Hit Highest Level in Months
A prediction market platform, Polymarket, has released forecasts indicating that former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in key battleground states for the upcoming elections. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s support is reportedly at 56%, compared to Harris’s 44%, which represents his largest lead ever in that state. Polymarket’s data shows Trump leading Harris by 12% in terms of winning odds. The platform also reports that Trump has substantial leads in other swing states, including Arizona and Georgia.
The report notes a fluctuation in predictions over the months, with both candidates trading places in support levels before Trump gained a decisive edge. Trump’s rally attendance and viewer engagement reportedly dwarfed that of Harris’s events, leading to speculation about declining support for Harris, particularly following a difficult interview that was criticized in the media.
Lastly, the article suggests that the current political climate positions Trump favorably going into the election, with statements about the accuracy of prediction markets over traditional polling due to financial stakes involved.
A major player in the prediction market has come out with a major forecast that former President Donald Trump is now leading Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris just hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania. Odds he wins are ahead by 12%,” Polymarket posted on X.
The post showed a graphic indicating Trump has 56 percent support in the key swing state of Pennsylvania against 44 percent for Harris.
🚨 BREAKING: Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris just hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania.
Odds he wins are ahead by 12%. pic.twitter.com/Nn3G5dmTng
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 7, 2024
Polymarket put Trump’s odds at 53.6 percent against 45.8 percent for Harris. Rounding that to 54 percent, it was the first time since August 5 that Trump has hit that mark.
The chart of predictions showed that on July 16, three days after the first assassination attempt against him, Trump was at 72 percent odds of winning.
Kamala’s 60 Minutes DISASTER!!
A preview of Vice-President Kamala Harris’ 60 minutes interview has leaked – and it’s not… it’s NOT good.
Witness her comments on the Israel-Gaza war and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu:
“The work that we have done has resulted in a number of… pic.twitter.com/9BdKBpnvAG
— Conservative Brief (@ConservBrief) October 6, 2024
Then President Joe Biden dropped out, to be replaced by Harris, and the daily predictions showed a rise in the odds for Harris as Trump’s dipped. From early August until early October, Trump and Harris flip-flopped in Polymarket’s predictions often within a point or two of each other,
In its newest numbers, Polymarket shows Trump ahead in Arizona, 67 percent to 33 percent for Harris, and Georgia, with 64 percent for Trump and 36 percent for Harris.
212,000+ was at the Trump rally yesterday in Butler, PA. The 2 overflow crowds had over 110,000.
24 million were WATCHING LIVE on Trumps X live feed simultaneously.
That’s not even counting the other platforms who streamed it.
Kamala could never. @KamalaHarris go fuck… pic.twitter.com/D4j63VBxeZ
— CHASE (@CHASESTACKSX) October 6, 2024
Three swing states remain in Harris’s hands, the latest numbers showed.
Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin, 52 percent to 48 percent, in Nevada, 53 percent to 47 percent, and Michigan, 53 percent to 47 percent, Polymarket said.
On the left we have an arial view of Trump’s Butler rally today where Elon and JD Vance will be guest speaking.
This is absolutely insane.
Now on the right, we have Kamala’s rally in Michigan yesterday.
Notice the difference? pic.twitter.com/qPaX714jbo
— Jack (@jackunheard) October 5, 2024
Elon Musk recently noted on X that prediction markets are “[m]ore accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
Writer Rex Umberleigh posted on X that support for Harris is fading because she is her own worst enemy.
the honeymoon is over.
As she hits various outlets and interviews, it will only get worse.
— Rex Umberleigh (@RexUmberleigh) October 7, 2024
“[T]he honeymoon is over. As she hits various outlets and interviews, it will only get worse,” he wrote.
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