Tuesday elections: Key points to watch in Virginia, Oklahoma, and Georgia races
In Virginia and Oklahoma, voters are casting their ballots in crucial congressional primaries. One of the most keenly watched races is in Virginia, where House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good is facing a strong challenge from John McGuire, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump. The tension stems from Good’s initial support for Ron DeSantis against Trump, although Good later endorsed Trump. Despite this, Trump has publicly criticized Good.
Meanwhile, in Oklahoma, Rep. Tom Cole is defending his seat against businessman Paul Bondar and other challengers in what is considered Cole’s most competitive race since 2002. Cole has significant political support, including from Trump, despite Bondar’s significant personal financial investment into his campaign.
Additionally, in Georgia, voters are returning for primary runoff elections in several races that were unresolved from the May primaries.
In other significant developments, Virginia’s political scene is active with Democratic primaries aiming to fill two open House seats. Rep. Abigail Spanberger is vacating her seat to run for governor, and Rep. Jennifer Wexton is not seeking re-election due to health issues.
The Democratic primary in Virginia’s 2nd District is also in the spotlight as Missy Cotter Smasal and Jake Denton vie for the chance to challenge Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, who narrowly won against a Democrat in the previous cycle.
In another critical race, several Republicans, including Trump-endorsed Hung Cao, are competing to challenge Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine in Virginia. Although Kaine’s seat is considered solidly Democratic, Republicans are hopeful, especially with Biden’s lower approval ratings as context.
These various elections across Virginia, Oklahoma, and Georgia illustrate the ongoing robust and complex dynamics within American political contests, reflecting broader national themes of incumbency challenges, party endorsements, and the influence of prominent political figures.
Voters in Virginia and Oklahoma head to the polls Tuesday, when they’ll decide on a slew of congressional, but not presidential, primaries.
Chief among the most notable primary contests is whether House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-VA) survives a primary challenger backed by former President Donald Trump.
House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is also defending his seat from a GOP rival.
Meanwhile, Georgia voters return to the polls Tuesday to vote in several primary runoff elections after candidates failed to reach a majority in the original May 21 primary races.
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Here are the top races to watch.
Can Good survive Trump’s wrath?
As payback for Good supporting Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) primary challenge against Trump, the former president endorsed Good’s primary challenger, Virginia state Sen. John McGuire.
Good eventually endorsed Trump’s presidential campaign, showed up at his New York trial, and even attended a House GOP meeting with Trump last week, but this has not been enough to tamp down Trump’s anger.
Shortly after Trump’s visit to Capitol Hill, he took to Truth Social to denounce Good. “Bob Good is BAD FOR VIRGINIA, AND BAD FOR THE USA,” Trump fumed. “He turned his back on our incredible movement, and was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently, when he gave a warm and ‘loving’ Endorsement – But really, it was too late.”
The primary for the Old Dominion’s 5th Congressional District has split the hard right as Freedom Caucus members seek to boost Good while Trump is working to oust the incumbent lawmaker. However, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), a Freedom Caucus member, recently came out in support of McGuire.
Good is also facing the ire of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whom he voted to oust last year. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) was also one of the eight Republicans who voted to boot McCarthy, but she survived her primary and McCarthy’s revenge campaign.
Democrats seek to fill two open House seats in Virginia
Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-VA) decision to run for governor in 2025 gives Democrats the chance to select a candidate who can succeed Spanberger in the 7th Congressional District.
Army veteran Eugene Vindman is one of the front-runners in the Democratic primary and is known, along with his twin brother Alexander Vindman, for reporting a 2019 call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that led to Trump’s first impeachment. Vindman faces five other candidates in the primary, including Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Angela Franklin.
But Republicans are hoping they can flip the district as the two primary front-runners, Navy veteran Cameron Hamilton and Army veteran Derrick Anderson, battle for victory.
Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) is also not seeking another term in office as she deals with Parkinson’s disease that has severely curtailed her ability to speak.
More than 12 Democrats are vying for the primary, but Wexton is backing state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam in the 10th District.
Democrats decide who will face Rep. Jen Kiggans
Two Democrats are facing off in the primary for Virginia’s 2nd District, which Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) represents.
President Joe Biden narrowly won the district in 2020 against Trump. Democrats are hoping they flip the seat back after Kiggans defeated former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria during the 2022 midterm elections.
Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal is backed by former Democratic Govs. Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe, as well as Spanberger and Wexton. Smasal will face constitutional law attorney Jake Denton in the primary.
Republicans get their pick on who will battle Sen. Tim Kaine
Trump is backing Navy veteran Hung Cao in the Republican primary that will decide who will face Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) in the fall.
Cao is among five candidates in the GOP primary including Scott Parkinson, a former DeSantis congressional staffer, who is backed by Good.
During the 2022 midterm elections, Cao lost his congressional election to Wexton by more than 6 percentage points. However, with Biden on the ticket, the GOP seeks to unseat Kaine, the Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2016.
But Cao faces an uphill climb. Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points in 2020, and the Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as “solid” for the Democratic Party.
Oklahoma Republican incumbents on the defense
Tuesday’s primary will be Cole’s most competitive contest since he was elected to Congress in 2002. Businessman Paul Bondar is the top contender out of four candidates challenging Cole, chairman of the Appropriations Committee since April, for Oklahoma’s 4th District.
Bondar, a political novice, used to live in Texas and even voted in the Lone Star State’s March primary this year. As a wealthy founder of an insurance company, Bondar has invested $5 million of his own fortune to unseat Cole, who has spent $3.1 million on the campaign.
The race represents the tensions between establishment Republicans and hard-line candidates.
Bondar ran as an anti-spending candidate who excoriated Cole for voting with Democrats “in new deficit spending.” But Cole has the backing of Trump and McCarthy, while no Freedom Caucus member has endorsed Bondar.
If Cole is forced into a runoff primary, even more money would need to be poured into the contest, which won’t take place until Aug. 27.
Rep. Frank Lucas (R-OK) is also facing a primary challenge from two Republicans for Oklahoma’s 3rd District.
Robin Carder and Darren Hamilton are hoping to unseat Lucas, who has been in Congress since 1994 and is the chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee. But none of the two candidates have raised serious money to challenge Lucas.
The seat is in no danger of flipping to Democrats. The Cook Political Report rated the district Republican +24.
Georgia runoff elections to shape congressional delegation makeup
Former Georgia state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan and Brian Jack, both Republicans, are battling over the Peach State’s 3rd District.
Jack has the backing of Trump, given his past occupation as a former Trump White House political director. He’s likely to win the runoff election on Tuesday to replace retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA). The winner will face Democrat Maura Keller in November.
Democratic candidates Clarence Blalock and Shawn “General” Harris will face off in the primary for the 14th District, which is represented by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).
Whichever Democrat wins the primary will face a steep climb in unseating Greene during the general election. The Cook Political Report rates the seat R+22.
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Republican candidates Chuck Hand, who pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and A. Wayne Johnson are competing for the 2nd District, represented by 77-year-old and 16-term Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-GA).
But with the Cook Political Report rating the seat D+3, it represents a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP in the fall.
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