Abortion declines in 2024 elections
Abortion: A Key Issue Shaping the 2024 Election
In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues that will have a lasting impact on the future, including the ongoing battle between the Biden family’s business deals and Republican Oversight, the emergence of a “new world order,” and fights over redistricting and new election maps. Part Six of this series delves into the contentious topic of abortion.
Abortion has long dominated debates on social matters in America, and it will undoubtedly continue to be a hotly contested issue in the upcoming 2024 election campaigns for the presidency, Senate, and state government positions.
Republicans faced significant setbacks in the 2023 state elections, losing key races in Kentucky and the Virginia state legislature. The underperformance of anti-abortion advocates during this season has prompted strategists to reevaluate campaign language and policy clarity surrounding this controversial procedure.
How Abortion Will Impact the 2024 Election
1. Republican Presidential Primary Field
As the Iowa caucuses draw near, cultural topics like abortion are set to heighten tensions in the 2024 presidential race early in the new year.
In November, both Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy shared personal stories with an Iowa audience about their respective wives’ miscarriages. These Republican contenders emphasized how their faith guided them through these tragic experiences, shaping their views on abortion.
Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have publicly argued that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 made abortion a matter for individual states to decide.
DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley have been less definitive on states’ rights regarding abortion but have expressed support for federal abortion restrictions if Congress can navigate the complexities.
Former President Donald Trump’s stance on abortion is less clear compared to his challengers. While he takes credit for appointing justices who overturned Roe, Trump has criticized Republicans like DeSantis for enacting strict abortion bans at six or 12 weeks gestation, deeming them too extreme.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has reaffirmed his commitment to protecting abortion rights at the federal level. The Democratic Party continues to leverage his administration’s actions in expanding access to abortion pills and contraception against Republicans.
2. Senate Races
In 2024, eleven Republican senators and four Democrats in Rust Belt swing states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, face reelection. With the retirement of Appalachian centrist Joe Manchin (D-WV), abortion could become a pivotal issue in determining partisan control in the closely divided Senate.
Ten of the Republicans up for reelection this year voted against the Democratic attempt to codify federal abortion protections shortly before the Supreme Court overturned Roe.
Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), and Josh Hawley (R-MO) have supported strict abortion bans in their respective states, making their races crucial to watch for potential voter backlash.
In response to criticism of Cruz’s support for Texas’s total abortion ban, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) has emphasized that the party does not advocate for a federal ban on all abortions. Daines also supports exceptions for rape, incest, and a mother’s life or health.
3. Abortion Amendments
Following Ohio’s decision to enshrine abortion and reproductive rights in its state constitution this November, several other states are considering abortion referendums for 2024.
Abortion rights advocates have outlined plans to place abortion rights amendments on the ballot in seven states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota.
Iowa’s Republican-controlled legislature may introduce an amendment that declares there is no fundamental right to abortion in the state, aiming to resolve conflicting rulings from the state Supreme Court.
Both Maryland and New York will also consider amendments to their respective constitutions that protect reproductive freedom rights and prohibit discrimination based on pregnancy-related conditions. These states currently safeguard abortion rights until fetal viability, typically identified by physicians between 22 and 24 weeks gestation.
Read more from the Washington Examiner here.
What specific anti-abortion policies have Senators Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Rob Portman (R-OH) supported, and how will their positions on abortion impact their chances of re-election?
E reelection bids. Abortion will likely play a significant role in these races, as candidates navigate the complex terrain of public opinion and party ideologies.
Senators Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Rob Portman (R-OH) have been consistent proponents of anti-abortion policies. Both have supported restrictions on federal funding for abortion services and have voted in favor of measures to limit access to abortion.
On the Democratic side, in these crucial swing states, Senators Bob Casey (D-PA) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) have consistently advocated for reproductive rights. They have opposed attempts to restrict access to abortion and have supported expanding access to contraception.
These Senate races will provide a platform for candidates to articulate their positions on abortion and appeal to voters who may be swayed by this issue. The balance of power in the Senate hangs in the balance, and the outcome of these races will have a significant impact on the future of abortion policy in the United States.
3. State Government Positions
The outcome of the 2024 state elections will also heavily influence the landscape of abortion policy across the country. State legislatures have been at the forefront of passing restrictive abortion laws. Anti-abortion advocates see state legislatures as a way to enact measures that could lead to the eventual overturning of Roe v. Wade.
The recent losses in Kentucky and Virginia have highlighted the importance of strategic planning and messaging for anti-abortion candidates. Advocates on both sides of the abortion debate are mobilizing their supporters and investing resources in key states where control of the state legislatures will be critical in shaping future abortion policies.
Conclusion
Abortion remains a key issue shaping the 2024 election, with implications for the presidency, Senate races, and state government positions. The Republican primary field is navigating the complexities of states’ rights and federal restrictions, while Democrats are doubling down on their support for reproductive rights. Senate races in swing states will provide a battleground for candidates to present their positions on abortion. The outcome of these races will have a significant impact on the balance of power and the future of abortion policy. Additionally, the state elections will determine the direction of abortion laws on a local level, shaping the overall landscape of reproductive rights in the United States.
As the 2024 election approaches, it is evident that the debate surrounding abortion will continue to be contentious. It will be crucial for candidates to articulate their positions clearly, address the concerns of their constituents, and engage in respectful and informed dialogue on this sensitive matter. The future of abortion policy in America hangs in the balance, and it is up to the voters to determine which path the nation will take.
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