Ukraine’s Defense Ministry in Upheaval as Russia Readies Offensive

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KYIV — Ukraine sowed confusion on Monday about whether its defense minister would be replaced, creating doubts about the leadership of its war effort just as it braces for an expected Russian offensive.

The questions over Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov were the first public sign of serious disarray in Ukraine’s wartime leadership.

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After Reznikov’s announcement, a high-ranking ally of President Volodymyr Zilenskiy appeared back to say that no changes would take place this week.

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David Arakhamia, chief of the parliamentary bloc of Zelenskiy’s party, had said the 37-year-old head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, would replace Reznikov, who would become minister of strategic industries.

Zelenskiy, however, remained silent. Reznikov stated on Sunday that he hadn’t heard anything.

The confusion caps a two-week crackdown on alleged official wrongdoing, Ukraine’s biggest political and administrative shakeup since Russia invaded a year ago.

Central and regional officials were fired or quit, security forces raided a billionaire’s home and investigations were launched into suspected fraud at the main oil company and refinery. Although Reznikov wasn’t personally accused, the Defence Ministry was accused overpaying for food.

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Zelenskiy said that he must show that Kyiv is capable of being a safe steward for billions of dollars in Western aid. But the moves may risk destabilizing a political class that had stood together against Russia’s invasion.

In the east, Russian forces are advancing for the first times in six months. According to a regional governor, Moscow is preparing for a new offensive which could start next week.

‘EVERYTHING WILL BE RESOLVED’

Ukraine plans a spring offensive but is still waiting for delivery of promised Western battle tanks and missiles with longer ranges.

Some of the West’s support has also come in the form of economic sanctions, and there was a sign that these were hitting Russia’s foreign revenues just as it raises spending on the war.

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Financial Ministry stated that vital oil and natural gas revenues had fallen 46% since January 2022, due to the Russian crude’s current discount on the world markets.

Although budget revenues were down by 35.1% for the month, spending rose 59% and is already higher than 10% of the full year’s spending plan.

Reznikov, a 56-year-old lawyer, has been the face of Ukraine at international meetings where allies have pledged billions of dollars in arms, and has been warmly received in Western capitals – including Paris just last week.

Budanov is a fast-rising officer who was decorated for operations that are still secret. One of the obstacles to his replacement with Budanov is a rule that requires the defense minister be a civilian.

Volodymyr Fesenko from the Penta thinktank said that he expected Budanov’s resignation, while Reznikov might be made a special envoy to make use of Reznikov’s international stature.

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“Everything will be resolved,” Fesenko spoke to Reuters.

Ukraine’s defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment and Reuters could not immediately reach Reznikov or Budanov.

In announcing plans for the change, Arakhamia said Ukraine’s armed forces should be overseen in wartime by people with a background in defense or security: “War dictates changes in personnel policy,” He posted the message via Telegram messaging app.

Mykhailo Podolyak was the Zelenskiy adviser and said Reznikov had been “extremely efficient in terms of communication with our partners.”

He called for an end of the speculation on national television: “The president will make the decision, this decision will then be discussed at various levels… then it will be officially communicated.”

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Reznikov stated that Zelenskiy could make the final decision, but that he hadn’t heard anything about a transfer. He stated that he would refuse the job in strategic industry as he did not have the skills.

OFFENSIVE LOOMS

As the war approaches its first anniversary, it is at a critical point. With Ukraine not making as many gains as in the second half 2022, and Russia moving forward with hundreds of thousand of mobilized reserves troops, Russia is gaining ground.

Serhiy Hadidai, the governor of eastern Luhansk, stated that there was no longer continuous shelling as Russian forces have sent in supplies and equipment to prepare for a large-scale offensive.

“After Feb. 15 we can expect (this offensive) at any time,” He said.

Russia claimed its forces captured Mykolaivka in the Donetsk area.

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Ukraine did not immediately respond to the request. It has also disputed other Russian battlefield reports.

Russia’s main target has been Bakhmut, where its state media said the Wagner mercenary group had gained a foothold.

Yevgeniy Privozhin, Wagner chief, is accused by Ukraine for sending thousands of Russian ex prisoners to their deaths in Bakhmut. A video purportedly shows him in a tactical-bomber that just struck the town. Zelenskiy was also challenged by him to an aerial duel.

(Additional reporting from Max Hunder, Ron Popeski and Nick Starkov; Writing by Tom Balmforth. Philippa Fletcher. Editing by Peter Graff. Hugh Lawson.