In the last two weeks, the unaffiliated bloc is up 23,228, Republicans 17,656, and Democrats 13,434. The total for unaffiliated registrations is just 7,862 shy of the combined total of Republicans and Democrats, and at 41% is more than 3% better than its total share.

Given the more than 75.35% turnout of the last presidential election, The Center Square is projecting record turnout of more than 5.8 million to decide the 16 electoral college votes going to either Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris. The former president is leading state polls, and the vice president is trying to repeat what only Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008 have done in the last 14 elections – Democrat win in North Carolina.

For context, Carter and Obama each lost the state four years later. A third win of the state by Trump would break the tie he has on a post-Civil War Republican short list with George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon and Ulysses S. Grant.

The deadline to register to vote in North Carolina was Oct. 11, though same-day registration is permitted during the early in-person time that began the following Thursday and wraps up Saturday ahead of Election Day. Through Saturday, according to the State Board of Elections, 56,927 have been added to give the state 7,793,041 total.

Those registering unaffiliated make up the largest voting bloc at 37.8%. Democrats are at 31.3%, Republicans 29.9% – all very different than two decades ago on Jan. 1, 2004, when it was 47.6% Democrats, 34.4% Republicans and 17.7% unaffiliated.

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina 49.9%-48.6% over the ticket of Joe Biden and Harris. In 2016, Trump won the state 49.8%-46.2% over the ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Trump outperformed the September and October polls each time.

Trump’s winning differences were 74,483 of more than 5.5 million votes cast in 2020, and 173,315 of more than 4.7 million cast in 2016. Turnout in 2016 was 68.98%.

North Carolina is one of seven consensus battleground states that collectively pivot 93 electoral college votes. Few prognosticators believe either candidate can win without the state or Pennsylvania, and perhaps need to take both.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral college votes, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.

The 78-year-old Trump has a 20-point platform, led by a return to enforcement of securing national borders. He chastises the Democrats for inflation that at 2.4% is nearly double – up 71%, from 1.4% – when he left office in January 2021, yet is considerably lower than the 9.1% high of June 2022 in the era of Bidenomics. Energy independence and “manufacturing superpower” are also in his top five.

The 60-year-old Harris, second in command to President Joe Biden, says her top issues are an opportunity economy and lower costs for families. Tax cuts for the middle class, affordable rent and home ownership, and growth by small businesses also top her list. On abortion she favors federal regulation over state authority, meaning a return to Roe v. Wade.