Urgent Numbers: Betting Markets Breaking Big for Trump as Polls Close
As polls closed across the United States, betting activity on former President Donald Trump surged, with a dominant 93.3% majority on the betting site Polymarket indicating he would win the electoral vote. In the race for the popular vote, Trump was also favored at 78%, though those odds appeared to fluctuate during the evening. Meanwhile, on Kalshi, Trump’s odds strengthened to 89%, and he was seen as the favorite in pivotal states like Pennsylvania, where 82% of bettors predicted a win for him.
Current polling and betting trends suggest a narrow but clear advantage for Trump, especially in key Southern and Midwestern states. Analysts noted that if Trump were to win Georgia and North Carolina, Harris would need to secure a clean sweep in several critical swing states to claim victory—a considerable challenge. The night is expected to be long, but the prevailing consensus in betting markets points to a potential setback for the Democrats.
As the polls close across America, gamblers are putting their money where their mouth is and betting on former President Donald Trump.
On betting site Polymarket, as of 10:45 p.m. ET, Trump was a 93.3 percent to 6.9 percent favorite to win the electoral vote and thus the presidential election.
In addition, the favorite to win the popular vote is also Trump with a margin of 78 percent to 22 percent for Harris. That number has been fluctuating throughout the night.
Odds Trump wins the popular vote are soaring, but Harris still has the lead.
🟦 Harris • 63.2% chance
🟥 Trump • 36.8% chance pic.twitter.com/meXuKruBFH— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
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On Kalshi, meanwhile, Trump’s margin has shot up to 89 percent as of 10:45 p.m. ET, vs. 11 percent for Harris.
The biggest mover in these numbers is the state of Pennsylvania, where Trump is currently the betting favorite.
On Kalshi, 82 percent of bettors favor Trump to win the Keystone State against 18 percent for Harris. With the Sun Belt swing states largely viewed as trending toward Trump, just one state in the Midwestern “Blue Wall” would hand him the election.
It’s not just the betting markets, either; as of shortly after 10 p.m. ET, The New York Times election needle showed that Donald Trump has a 78 percent chance of victory.
Also driving that are the three toss-up states in the Midwest, two of which have a 60 percent chance of going the Republicans’ way.
Only Wisconsin, which is leaning 56 percent Trump’s way, is out of the 60 percent zone.
“[Trump] is a narrow but clear favorite to win Georgia and North Carolina,” Times data expert Nate Cohn noted.
“If he carries those states, Kamala Harris will probably need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win — a real possibility, but a tall order nonetheless. We have very little data from those states, and it will be a long time until we do.”
In other words, be prepared for a long night. However, smart money seems to favor Donald Trump as the polls are closing across America.
If betting markets are a better predictor than polls — as many have said — it could be a very bad night for the Democrats.
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