China’s potential triumph in Taiwan war due to US blind spot.

Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping’s Military Options for Taiwan

Former officials and American analysts are expressing concerns about a military option that Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping may have for subjugating Taiwan, which U.S. strategists have neglected. According to Lonnie Henley, a retired intelligence officer specializing in China issues, China’s options include invasion or blockade, with the latter being a fallback option if the invasion fails. The advantage of a blockade is that there is not much the United States can do about it, but it is a slow process that involves starving people out.

A Potential Devastating War

Despite the bleak assessment, there is a consensus that political and strategic calculations could lead to a fight between China and Taiwan, even if both sides prefer to avoid a clash. Henley believes that any war over Taiwan would be devastating for China, leading to a long and hot Cold War after the shooting stops. China strongly prefers to solve the Taiwan problem without violence.

However, if Taiwan were to declare independence or the U.S. were to change its policy to support an independent Taiwan, China would be forced to take action. The hope is that the United States can mitigate the risk of war through a tempered posture towards Taiwan.

Complications in U.S.-China Relations

The acrimony in U.S.-China relations complicates the situation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s conciliatory message to Xi, emphasizing that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence, was seen as a subtle provocation by Chinese officials. The tensions have sparked American anxiety about China’s potential truculence.

There are concerns that the U.S. and China may engage in a fight as early as 2025, according to Air Force Gen. Michael Minihan. However, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is not yet prepared for such a conflict, despite China’s military modernization efforts.

The Blockade Option

While invasion scenarios receive more attention, some analysts believe that a blockade is a more appealing option for China. It would give China time to build its logistics chain and rally a coalition, but it would also come with its own set of challenges. The Chinese may not have an overall sense of control, and unexpected events could occur that the party cannot tolerate.

On the other hand, a blockade scenario could pose difficulties for the U.S. and any force seeking to relieve Taiwan. Taiwan’s main ports are within the range of Chinese military assets, making it challenging to break the blockade and sustain the necessary supplies for the island.

Preparing for the Fight

According to Henley, U.S. and Taiwanese officials have not adequately addressed the challenges posed by a blockade scenario. While they may win the initial battle, they could lose in the next phase of the fight if they are not prepared. Henley emphasizes the need to prepare for that part of the fight to increase the chances of success.

It is crucial for the United States to recognize and address the potential military options that China may have for Taiwan, as neglecting them could have significant consequences.

*As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases