US mounts furious diplomatic effort to head off wider war in Middle East

‘WE ARE ENGAGED IN INTENSE DIPLOMACY’: Another tense night passed in Israel without Iran’s threatened major attack materializing, but no one is breathing a sigh of relief.

“It is a critical moment.  We are engaged in intense diplomacy pretty much around the clock, with a very simple message: All parties must refrain from escalation.  All parties must take steps to ease tensions.  Escalation is not in anyone’s interest. It will only lead to more conflict, more violence, more insecurity,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a State Department news conference. “It’s also critical that we break this cycle by reaching a ceasefire in Gaza. That, in turn, will unlock possibilities for more enduring calm, not only in Gaza itself but in other areas where the conflict could spread.”

“What it comes down to, really, is all parties finding ways to come to an agreement, not look for reasons to delay or to say no,” Blinken said. “It is urgent that all parties make the right choices in the hours and days ahead.”

Leaders in Egypt and Turkey say they are also working to find a diplomatic off-ramp to avert the Israel-Hamas war from becoming a wider war that draws in other countries in the region. But Iran continues to vow a response to the killings of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran.

“Iran cannot be indifferent toward the security, it’s friends and allies security and the security of the region,” Nasser Kanaani, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Minister, said Monday.

BLINKEN TELLS ISRAEL AND IRAN TO ‘MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICES IN HOURS AHEAD’

US TROOPS COME UNDER FIRE IN IRAQ: There was an apparent rocket attack yesterday by Iranian-backed militia on the Al Asad Air Base in Iraq where U.S. troops are based.  Several U.S. personnel were wounded, but none seriously, defense officials said. 

The U.S. Central Command has yet to release details of the attack. Still, Iraqi security officials confirmed it occurred Monday, as tensions in the region rise, and strikes against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have been on an uptick in recent weeks. As many as seven military troops and civilians suffered injuries, one official told the Associated Press.

The Pentagon acknowledged the incident in a readout of a phone conversation between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. “Secretary Austin and Minister Gallant agreed that today’s Iran-aligned militia attack on U.S. forces stationed at Al-Asad Airbase in western Iraq marked a dangerous escalation and demonstrated Iran’s destabilizing role in the region,” spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement. “Secretary Austin provided an update on measures to strengthen U.S. military posture in the region in light of this escalating situation.”

“The chess game that’s underway right now in the Middle East, which is horrifying in and of itself, is one between Iran and Israel,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said on CNN. “I suspect, but I don’t know … that this militia attack on a U.S. base was probably not part of the retaliation that we’re bracing for.”

“I think the Iranians are smart enough to know that A, the United States has been working very hard for a ceasefire deal, Israel, Gaza, and, B, I don’t think the Iranians want a direct and open fight with the Israelis and they sure don’t want a direct open fight with the United States,” Himes said. 

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) blamed what she called the “Biden-Harris administration’s policy of appeasement” for the attacks.

“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris reversed President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign, allowing Iranian oil exports to skyrocket, providing Tehran access to $16 billion in sanctions relief, and opposing the snapback of U.N. sanctions on Iran’s missile and drone program,” Stefanik said in a statement. “This appeasement has empowered Iranian-backed terrorists to carry out nearly 200 attacks against U.S. service members, resulting in the deaths of Americans and countless injuries.”

IRAN’S TARGETING PLOY: Meanwhile, a media outlet run by the Iranian armed forces has published a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel, which appears to be an effort to confuse Israel about what it needs to protect with its air defenses.

“The target list is not necessarily an indicator of what exact targets Iran will strike,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment.  “It is more likely intended to achieve informational effects rather than to specify the precise targets to be struck.”

“Iran’s decision to explicitly name these targets, which are spread throughout Israel, likely seeks to cause the Israel Defense Forces to disperse air- and missile-defense assets across a wide area,” the ISW suggests. “The list includes Israeli military bases and government sites like the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, the Israeli Knesset building in Jerusalem, and eight airbases across Israel.”

US VOWS FULL-COURT PRESS TO HELP ISRAEL AHEAD OF ATTACK BY IRAN

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HAPPENING TODAY: With one eye on the Middle East, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin host their Australian counterparts, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles, for the annual Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations in Annapolis, Maryland.

The talks get underway at 10 a.m., and a press conference featuring all four ministers is set for 4:30 p.m. It will be live-streamed on the State Department and Pentagon websites.

“We share with Australia a vision for a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific,” Austin said before a meeting with Marles yesterday. “Together, our unbreakable alliance is helping to make that vision a reality. We’re delivering on major force posture initiatives, deepening our defense industrial cooperation, and expanding efforts with our regional allies and partners.”

In September 2021, Australia, U.K., and the U.S. formed a trilateral partnership dubbed AUKUS, which, among other things, aimed to provide Australia with a fleet of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines.

“The U.S.-Australia alliance is more than history or tradition,” Wong said yesterday at the State Department. “It is a living expression of two countries that are aligned. We’re aligned by who we are, what we stand for, and what we want. Two robust democracies whose peoples’ voices and values are heard and protected by the rule of law, and both of us home to ancient cultures and generations of immigrants to countries that share an interest in a world that’s open, stable, and prosperous, in which all of us can make our own sovereign choices.”

AUKUS NUCLEAR SUBMARINES COULD HELP TAIWAN IN WAR WITH CHINA, US SAYS

UKRAINE WAR: RUSSIA ADVANCES, UKRAINE SINKS SUB: The war in Ukraine continues on a slow burn with both sides claiming modest successes. In recent days, Russian forces have advanced at great cost east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk and near Donetsk City and Robotyne, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia has been averaging more than 1,000 casualties a day, although the daily toll has dropped from 1,262 to 1,140, according to the British Defense Ministry.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s drones have been having success attacking Russian oil facilities as well as combat aircraft parked on the ground. Satellite imagery shows that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed a Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3, the ISW reported.

“Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4.” the ISW noted.

This week, Ukraine officially acknowledged it had received its first delivery of F-16 fighter jets and also claimed to have sunk the Russian Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don as it was being repaired from a previous strike. At the same time, Ukrainian missiles hit an S-400 anti-aircraft missile complex in occupied Crimea.

ZELENSKY HERALDS ‘NEW PHASE’ AS UKRAINE BEGINS USING WESTERN-PROVIDED F-16S

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Blinken tells Israel and Iran to ‘make the right choices in hours ahead’

Washington Examiner: US vows full-court press to help Israel ahead of attack by Iran

Washington Examiner: Nine UNRWA employees ‘may’ have participated in Oct. 7 attack, UN investigation reveals

Washington Examiner: Austin ‘certainly surprised’ by since-rescinded plea deals for 9/11 terrorists

Washington Examiner: Zelensky heralds ‘new phase’ as Ukraine begins using Western-provided F-16s

Washington Examiner: US military departs last Nigerien air base

Washington Examiner: Secret Service denies White House cocaine report

Washington Examiner: Former Trump lawyer agrees to cooperate in Arizona elector case

Washington Examiner: Chutkan jumpstarts Trump Jan. 6 case, signaling aggressive pace

Washington Examiner: Opinion: What’s going on with the riots in England?

Business Insider: The U.S. Navy Is On Its Fourth Aircraft Carrier As Its Warships React To Fighting In The Middle East

Fox News: U.S. Forces Destroy Multiple Houthi Weapons, Vehicles In Past 24 Hours: CENTCOM

Washington Post: Houthi Drone Expert Among Those Killed In U.S. Strike In Iraq

Politico: Europe’s Ability to Deter Putin Hampered by ‘Unbelievable’ Red Tape: French General

Washington Post: Houthi Drone Expert Among Those Killed in US Strike in Iraq

Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Closes Last Drone Base in Niger, with Uncertain Future for Counterterrorism Fight

AP: Bloomberg apologizes for premature story on prisoner swap and disciplines the journalists involved

The War Zone: B-1B Tests New Pylon That Could Drastically Increase Its Weapons Carriage Capabilities

Defense One: The Plan to Keep B-52s Flying Is Getting Even Pricier

Defense One: Meet the Pentagon’s First-Ever Cyber Policy Chief

SpaceNews: Space Force Explores ‘Small GEO’ Options for Resilient Communications

Air & Space Forces Magazine: AFSOC Turns Rural Highway into Runway for Historic AC-130J Touchdown

Task & Purpose: Watch the US Air Force Sink an Old Navy Ship as Part of RIMPAC

Military.com: Air Force’s New Courses Hope to Close ‘Developmental Gap’ Before Airmen Become NCOs

Foreign Affairs: Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt: America Isn’t Ready for the Wars of the Future

The Cipher Brief: Dealing with ‘Axis of Authoritarians’ Requires Greater U.S. Policy Risk

The Cipher Brief: Prisoner Swap Could Open Doors to Further Opportunity

THE CALENDAR: 

TUESDAY | AUGUST 6

10 a.m. — Annapolis, Maryland — The 34th Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), with Secretary of State Antony Blinken; Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin; Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong; and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles https://www.state.gov/2024-australia-u-s-ministerial-consultations/

9 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Electronics Division meeting, with the theme “Market Pull: The Express Bus past the Valley of Death,” with Nick Martin, director, Defense Microelectronics Activity; and Scott Bukofsky, director of capabilities, Commerce Department CHIPS National Semiconductor Technology Center Program RSVP:  Evamarie Socha, [email protected]  https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/

WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 7

8 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition,” with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Arati Prabhakar, director, Office of Science and Technology Policy; Christopher Lawman, assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; Army Lt. Gen. Mark Simerly, director, Defense Logistics Agency; Lt. Gen. Heidi Hoyle, Army deputy chief of staff for logistics; Daniel Fri, Air Force assistant deputy chief of staff; William LaPlante, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment; Nickolas Guertin, Assistant Navy Secretary for Research, Development and Acquisition; Andrew Hunter, assistant Air Force secretary for acquisition, technology and logistics; Frank Calvelli, assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration; and Young Bang, assistant Army Secretary for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology RSVP: Evamarie Socha, [email protected]  https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “Navigating Global Challenges,” with Coast Guard Vice Commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday https://www.brookings.edu/events/navigating-global-challenges

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW— Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program and U.S. Naval Institute in-person and virtual Maritime Security Dialogue: “Preserving the Free Flow of Commerce in the Red Sea and Beyond: An Update from 5th Fleet Commander,” with Vice Adm. George Wikoff, commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces, retired Rear Adm. Raymond Spicer, CEO and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; and Seth Jones, CSIS senior vice president https://www.csis.org/events/preserving-free-flow-commerce-red-sea

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of the U.S.-Australia Alliance,” with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-australian-deputy-prime-minister

11 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: “Mapping Iranian External Operations Worldwide,” with Hans-Georg Engelke, state secretary of the German Ministry of the Interior and Community; Magnus Ranstorp, strategic adviser at the Swedish Defense University’s Center for Societal Security; Norman Roule, nonresident senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program; and Matthew Levitt, director of the WINEP Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “The Middle East on the Cusp of a Regional War,” with Amos Harel, Haaretz military correspondent https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/08/the-middle-east-on-the-cusp

THURSDAY | AUGUST 8

8 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition,” with David Honey, deputy undersecretary of defense for research and engineering;  Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Undersecretary of the Army Gabe Camarillo; and former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work deliver remarks on “Service Perspectives” https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Assad’s Return: Regional Changes, and Future Outlook,” with Sawsan Abou Zainedin, CEO of Madaniya; Maria Fantappie, head of the IAI Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa Program; Abdullah Baabood, CEIP nonresident senior scholar; Armenak Tokmajyan, CEIP nonresident scholar; and Sinan Ulgen, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/08/assads-return

1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Over the Brink: Escalation Management in a Protracted U.S.-PRC (People’s Republic of China) Conflict,” with Austin Long, deputy director for strategic stability for the Joint Staff; Justin Anderson, senior policy fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Andrew Metrick, fellow at the CNAS Defense Program; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-over-the-brink

3:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Wilson Center Indo-Pacific Program and Wilson Center’s History and Public Policy Program virtual discussion: “One Year Later: The Path Forward for US-ROK-Japan Trilateral Relations,” with Dayna Barnes, associate professor at the National Defense University; Sung-Yoon Lee, fellow and professor of Korean studies and assistant professor at Tufts University’s Fletcher School; Hayoun Ryou-Ellison, assistant professor of the National Defense University; and Kayla Irta, senior associate at the Hyundai-Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/one-year-later-path-forward

FRIDAY | AUGUST 98 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition,” with Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Maryna Bezrukova, director, Defense Procurement Agency; and Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Adm. Christopher Grady https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/