“The increase contributes to inflation, the high cost of living in California, and has a disproportionate and adverse impact on lower income Californians,” wrote Professor Michael A. Mische. “To compensate for the increases, the average Californian driving an internal combustion vehicle will have to earn an additional $600.00 to $1,000.00 a year in pre-tax income in order to “breakeven” with 2024 prices, depending on the grade of gas they purchase.”

Days after the November election, the California Air Resources Board — a regulatory commission almost entirely appointed by the governor — passed new updates to the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, requiring producers of “dirty” transportation fuel to purchase more credits from producers of “clean” transportation fuel. The new LCFS will provide an estimated $105 billion in EV charging credits and $8 billion of hydrogen credits largely paid for by fees on gasoline and diesel, which the state estimated would be passed on to drivers and consumers. 

Mische first estimated  that the state’s newly passed carbon credit requirement will increase retail prices for regular grade gasoline in 2025 somewhere between 40 and 65 cents per gallon — similar to that estimated by the University of Pennsylvania Kleinman Center for Energy Policy.

He then estimated that the governor’s new refinery regulations he passed during a special legislative session last month would increase prices between 5 and 27 cents per gallon, and that the shutdown of the Phillips 66 refinery announced after the new refinery regulations would add another 8 to 14 cents per gallon.

Because California gas taxes rise with the state’s price index, Mische estimates the gas tax will go up between one to two cents per gallon in 2025.

Combined, these changes add up to an increase of 55 to 90 cents per gallon of regular-grade gasoline in 2025, and 95 cents to $1.15 for premium-grade gasoline.

Republicans pointed out that the governor has now moved away from Sacramento, the state’s capital, and will now be chauffeured to work in a gasoline car. 

“Newsom is completely out of touch, recently purchasing a $9.1 million mansion in Kentfield, a wealthy town that’s 90 miles away from his job in Sacramento,” said Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones, R-San Diego, in a statement. “While regular Californians face tough choices between putting food on the table or gas in their cars, Newsom will be chauffeured to work from his luxury home in a taxpayer-funded car, running on taxpayer-funded gas, on the rare occasions he decides to show up.”