Bob Good gains momentum as opponent’s support from Trump declines

Embattled Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, appears to be weathering criticism from former President Donald Trump and ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Trump’s endorsement last week of Virginia commonwealth Sen. John McGuire initially knocked Good down in polls. Good has since scrambled back to lead 39%-30% in a new survey from Neighborhood Research and Media for Champions of Freedom PAC.

Republican pollster Rick Shaftan told Secrets that Trump’s endorsement on May 28 initially affected the race and put McGuire, a former Navy SEAL, near the lead. But the former president’s conviction on 34 counts in a New York hush money trial “took the wind out of the sail.”

What’s more, conservatives, especially right-leaning men in the district that stretches from Charlottesville and the Richmond suburbs south to the North Carolina border, have rallied for Good, a hard-liner on several issues, especially illegal immigration.

In his memo shared with Secrets, Shaftan wrote, “After taking a hit Thursday last week, Good began to recover as soon as the Trump verdict came down, with a 39%-30% lead over the three days. But that includes Friday numbers when Good was up just 35-32 versus the calls from Monday and Tuesday where Good’s lead expanded to 41%-28%.”

The memo added, “Very conservative voters are also becoming a larger share of the electorate and this is excellent news for Bob Good. Sixty-three percent of likely voters consider themselves very conservative and Good holds a 47%-30% lead there including 49%-26% in the calls from Monday and Tuesday.”

Virginia’s 5th District has been reliably Republican and Good has won since 2020 by healthy margins. This year he got in a tangle after he helped to oust McCarthy, who then sought out a primary challenger. He also endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president.

In his endorsement of McGuire, Trump called Good “bad” for Virginia and America. Trump also demanded that Good stop suggesting that he backs the House Republican. Good, meanwhile, has since endorsed Trump and even showed up to support Trump in the New York courthouse where the former president was later convicted.

SEE THE LATEST POLITICAL NEWS AND BUZZ FROM WASHINGTON SECRETS

Others have come to Good’s defense, including notable conservatives Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL).

With the GOP primary set for June 18, Shaftan indicated that Good is well positioned. “Overall it seems as if Good has stabilized and is getting a little stronger while McGuire’s favorables are crashing as the Trump endorsement fades into the background. McGuire was hoping the endorsement would change the race trajectory, but it has not,” he wrote.