Virginia’s November Elections Seen as GOP’s 2024 National Test
Republicans Aim to Expand House Advantage and Flip Senate Seats in 2024
Republicans are launching an aggressive campaign to strengthen their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and target vulnerable Democrat-held Senate seats. Their goal is to gain control of all three branches of government and implement a conservative agenda. This ambitious plan is set to be put to the test in Virginia on November 7, 2023, according to the state’s governor.
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Virginia’s off-year General Assembly elections are seen as a bellwether for national voting trends, making them the first election of 2024. All 100 seats in the House of Delegates, currently led by Republicans with a 52-48 majority, and all 40 seats in the state Senate, where Democrats hold a 22-18 advantage, are up for grabs on November 7.
The defining issue of this election is abortion, with both parties believing they have the winning strategy. Democrats are focusing on protecting women’s rights from conservative overreach, while Republicans are rallying behind a proposed 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.
A recent survey conducted by The Washington Post-Schar School in March 2023 found that 49 percent of Virginia voters support a 15-week ban with exceptions, while 46 percent oppose it.
Virginia has a history of flipping chambers, with Democrats gaining control in 2017 and retaining it in 2019. However, with Governor Glenn Youngkin’s victory in 2021 and the GOP regaining the House, Republicans are now aiming to reverse that trend and set the stage for the 2024 elections.
The outcome of the Virginia elections will have significant implications for the national political landscape. Republicans are confident in their ability to hold the House and flip the Senate, viewing Virginia as a crucial test case.
Rare ’Competitive’ Legislature
Virginia is not the only state with upcoming elections. Campaigns for state legislatures are also underway in New Jersey, Louisiana, and Mississippi. While odd-year elections typically have lower turnout, these races are still important, especially in states where governor elections are also taking place.
In Mississippi, Republican Governor Tate Reeves is favored to win a second term and maintain the state’s GOP trifecta, which means controlling both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion.
Louisiana voters will see elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, legislators, mayors, sheriffs, parish council members, and constitutional amendments. The state’s “jungle primary” system allows candidates of all party affiliations to compete on the same ballot, with the top two advancing to a runoff election if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote.
Republicans have the opportunity to complete a trifecta in Louisiana if Republican state Attorney General Jeff Landry wins the governor’s office. Currently, Democrats hold 17 state trifectas, including in New Jersey.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans are likely to retain control in Louisiana and Mississippi, while Democrats are expected to maintain their grip on power in New Jersey. Virginia is the only state with a highly competitive legislature, making it the center of attention in the 2023 elections.
Follow the Money—Lots of It
Campaign spending in Virginia is reaching record levels. According to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), General Assembly candidates have raised a collective $87 million, with more than $22 million spent on campaign ads as of June 30.
Virginia does not have campaign contribution limits for state elections, giving large donors more influence compared to federal election rules. This is seen as an advantage for Republican candidates, particularly those supported by Governor Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, which has raised $12 million since March.
The Democratic National Committee has also invested heavily in Virginia, funneling $1.2 million into the Majority Project PAC to support Democratic candidates.
With the election approaching, campaign spending is expected to increase even further.
Battleground Senate Districts
Eight of Virginia’s 40 state Senate seats were determined in the June primaries, with the winners running unopposed in the general election. Among the remaining 32 districts, eight are considered battlegrounds, evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
According to CNalysis, seven Virginia Senate races are competitive, with two rated as tossups and three leaning slightly towards one party. VPAP identifies four of the races as tossups.
Senate campaigns in Virginia have raised over $55 million, with Democrats leading the fundraising efforts. Several candidates, including Democrat Lashrecse Aird, have already surpassed the $1 million mark in campaign contributions.
The most competitive races are expected to take place in the outskirts of metropolitan areas, where voters tend to be college-educated and moderate.
Overall, CNalysis projects that Democrats will retain control of the state Senate, while also giving them a 71 percent chance of flipping the House. However, the GOP is not giving up, with several closely watched races that could determine the final outcome.
Virginia’s elections are shaping up to be a crucial battleground, with significant implications for the national political landscape. Both parties are pouring resources into the state, making it a closely watched test case for the 2024 elections.
Can corporations give unlimited amounts of money directly to a political candidate?
Independent-expenditure-only political committees (sometimes called “Super PACs”) may accept unlimited contributions, including from corporations and labor organizations. Ion limits, allowing candidates to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money. This has attracted significant contributions from both sides, as political experts expect the state’s elections to set the tone for the 2024 election cycle.
Labor unions, in particular, have been active in Virginia’s political landscape. As reported by The Epoch Times, labor unions have spent a staggering $25 billion on political campaigns, although much of this spending is not disclosed to the public. This influx of money adds another layer of complexity to the competitive playing field, as it offers an advantage to candidates with significant financial backing.
The Republican Party has historically relied on large donor contributions, while the Democratic Party has often received support from labor unions. With campaign spending reaching unprecedented levels, both parties are tapping into their respective financial bases to fund their respective efforts in Virginia.
The Consequences
The outcome of the November 7 elections in Virginia will have far-reaching consequences for the political landscape in 2024 and beyond. If Republicans can retain control of the House of Delegates and flip the state Senate, it will signal a significant shift in power and set the stage for a potential Republican wave in the upcoming national elections.
Not only will this outcome directly impact the state’s policies and legislative agenda, but it will also shape the narrative leading up to the 2024 presidential race. Both parties will closely analyze the results in Virginia as an indicator of national trends, and the winning party will likely use their success to boost their momentum heading into the next election cycle.
Whether the Republicans can successfully expand their House advantage and flip Senate seats in 2024 remains uncertain. The upcoming Virginia elections will serve as a critical test for their ambitious plan. As the campaign heats up and election day approaches, all eyes will be on Virginia as a bellwether for the future of American politics.
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