Voters in a Republican-controlled California House district will choose between the incumbent and a Democratic newcomer
In California’s 45th Congressional District, which has historically swung between parties, voters face a choice between re-electing Republican Representative Michelle Steel and supporting a new Democratic candidate, Derek Tran. This district, which encompasses parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but chose Steel in the 2022 midterms. Following redistricting, the district now presents an equal demographic of Asian American and white voters, with a larger percentage of registered Democrats than Republicans. This shift has made the district a target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program, aiming to flip Republican-held seats.
Michelle Steel, originally representing the 48th District, was elected to the newly mapped 45th District in a close race against former Democratic Representative Harley Rouda. Steel has a strong conservative record in Congress, with notable votes against the Equality Act and the Respect for Marriage Act, and has co-sponsored legislation reflecting a traditional stance on life beginning at conception.
Derek Tran, Steel’s challenger, is part of an effort to appeal to the district’s large Vietnamese voter base, which leans Republican. Both candidates are of Asian descent, with Steel being Korean and Tran Vietnamese, adding a unique dynamic to the electoral context influenced by cultural and demographic shifts within the district.
The race epitomizes the political balances and demographic changes influencing voter decisions in a closely watched electoral battleground, reflecting broader national trends in competitive districts.
Voters in a Southern California district with a history of casting ballots for both parties will be faced with the option of giving Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) another term or a Democratic newcomer a chance.
California’s 45th Congressional District, which has undergone redistricting in recent years, voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election but went for Steel during the 2022 midterm elections.
The Republican congresswoman, who has been in Congress since 2021, was moved to the 45th District from the 48th due to the state’s redistricting and won her seat by 4.8 percentage points. As she seeks another term in the House, she faces Democratic challenger Derek Tran, an untested Democratic candidate who is hoping to unseat Steel.
The 45th District, which went for Biden by 6 points in 2020, comprises Orange County cities and a bit of Los Angeles County. The seat is already being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for its “Red to Blue” program, which seeks to flip Republican-held seats to retake the House majority.
Redistricting plays a role
Since the district was redrawn, it now comprises equal parts Asian American and white voters and has more registered Democrats than Republicans, with 36.9% registered with the Democratic Party, 33.3% with the Republican Party, and 23.8% with no party preference, according to data from the secretary of state in California.
“The 2020 lines have changed, and the 45th Congressional District now has the largest population of Vietnamese voters in the country,” Orrin Evans, spokesman for Tran’s campaign, told the Washington Examiner.
Vietnamese Americans are the most Republican-leaning Asian population in the United States. Members of the voting bloc are very averse to signs of socialism or communism due to communists leading their home country and remnants of the Vietnam War.
This area, or “Little Saigon,” is home to the largest population of Vietnamese people living outside of Vietnam.
Both candidates are Asian American, with Steel being Korean and Tran being Vietnamese.
Former Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda flipped the seat as he rode the blue wave in the House in 2018 in what was previously California’s 48th Congressional District. Before Rouda, Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher represented it for about three decades through a few rounds of redistricting but relatively represented the same area.
“I don’t know how many people thought [Steel] could win after [former Rep.] Dana Rohrabacher actually lost that same congressional seat by 21,000 votes,” Sam Oh, a campaign strategist for Steel’s campaign, told the Washington Examiner.
Steel’s conservative record
She got into politics after a discrepancy between a government agency and her mother’s business.
Her father worked as a diplomat in Japan before the family immigrated from South Korea to the U.S. Here, her mother, who did not speak much English, owned a business that was cited by a city agency for something Steel believed was false, Steel’s campaign told the Washington Examiner.
Steel, who was learning English in school at the time, was able to fight the citation successfully on behalf of her mother’s business.
“She got into public service because that always stuck with her,” Oh said. Steel got started in local politics in Orange County, holding various positions in local government before deciding to run in 2020.
In 2020, Steel flipped the newly drawn, Asian-heavy district red, beating Rouda by only 1 percentage point, or about 7,000 more votes.
“She is very much of the opinion government should work for the people that it represents,” Oh said.
In the House, Steel has a strong conservative record. Some of her voting history includes voting against the Equality Act, which would have prohibited discrimination based on one’s sexual identity or orientation. She also voted against the Respect for Marriage Act, which passed and requires the government to recognize the validity of same-sex and interracial civil marriages.
In 2023, Steel co-sponsored legislation that would have said life was guaranteed by the Constitution “at all stages of life, including the moment of fertilization, cloning, or other moment at which an individual comes into being.”
This bill did not include protections for in vitro fertilization treatments, unlike the Senate versions. She switched her stance in 2024 after the Alabama Supreme Court ruling created chaos over protections for IVF treatment, saying, “I do not support federal restrictions on IVF.”
She also voted against the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill in 2021 but ended up taking some credit for the funding that went back to her district, saying, “This funding for the dredging Newport Beach Harbor is long overdue.”
Steel’s campaign remained firm that “a lot of the stuff that she talks about is centered around commonsense solutions about issues that matter to the average voter.”
“She wants people to feel safe. She wants families to be safe,” Oh said.
A new challenger
In 2022, Steel defeated Democrat Jay Chen, 52.4% to 47.6%.
Now, Tran is seeking to represent the largely Vietnamese district, hoping his heritage will help him swing voters to his side in November.
“Derek’s life has been one of service to his country, the country that welcomed his parents as refugees fleeing Communism,” Evans said.
According to a recent poll conducted by a pollster with ties to the DCCC, Tran is in a good place to challenge Steel. However, Cook Political Report labels the district as “Leans Republican.”
Still, Evans believes Tran is “uniquely positioned to flip this seat.”
Tran has a background in law and military service but does not have many policy-driven stances. Tran “is 100% pro-choice,” according to his campaign website.
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Tran’s campaign told the Washington Examiner that abortion will be one of the matters he is focused on, contrasting Steel’s record on abortion and saying Steel has “consistently” advocated “extreme policies” on the topic of IVF protections.
“Derek’s story of being the son of Vietnamese refugees fleeing communism, enrolling the Army while still in High School, fighting corporate special interests as a worker rights attorney and the costs of prescription drugs as a local pharmacy owner resonate deeply with this electorate,” Evans said in a statement.
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