Typically, if a minimum wage question makes it onto the ballot, it’s a foregone conclusion it will pass, Economics Reporter Zach Halaschak wrote for us this morning in the second part of our Direct Democracy series examining the slew of ballot measures that aren’t getting as much attention nationally as bigger contests. 

“Minimum wage proposals are overwhelmingly popular and typically pass, even in Republican states,” Zach wrote. “The federal minimum wage is $7.25, the same amount it has been since 2009. State minimum wages supersede the federal minimum wage, so if a state’s minimum wage is higher than the federal, that state wage applies.” 

While the proposals are popular and tend to succeed once the question is put to voters directly, it’s far from a settled question whether minimum wage increases help or hurt workers and the economy. 

Critics told Zach that government interference in setting wages is part of what has caused runaway inflation in recent years.

As businesses recognize more cash swirling around, they raise the cost of goods. When employers then raise the minimum wage, injecting more cash into the economy, businesses raise their prices again, creating a wage-price spiral. 

Proponents of increases say the larger effects are overblown. They argue there is little connective tissue between minimum wage increases and state economic health markers such as unemployment. 

Here is a glance at how the question could be decided next week. 

Massachusetts is an outlier among the four states because it focuses on stepping up wages for tipped workers in particular. 

Currently, tipped workers are paid $6.75 an hour, with the expectation they will make up the remainder of their salary in gratuities. Voters will decide whether those workers’ salaries should be raised to $15 over the next five years. 

Alaska, California, and Missouri are the other states considering wage increases, but Alaska is the only one with a timeline for boosts stretching out more than a year. 

The state is asking voters whether wages should go up from $11.73 to $15 by 2027. 

Click here to read more about the minimum wage-boosting proposals on ballots.

Closing it out

Harris and Trump have one week of campaigning left before polls close, and there is nothing left to do but watch ballots get counted. The next seven days won’t be a time for sitting back and watching the chips fall where they may, but Harris is planning on making her “closing argument” to voters this evening. 

The former top prosecutor has run a campaign with an eye on litigating the shortcomings of Trump the candidate and Trump the president. Her message of law enforcement versus felon hasn’t always landed, as she vacillated between talking about “joy” and a bright future for the country and the gloomy doomsday voters are in for if they don’t check the box next to her and other Democrats’ names. 

But with time running out, Harris is stepping into Trump’s shadow that hangs over the Ellipse to deliver a final message that can remind voters about the violence of Jan. 6, 2021. 

Tuesday’s speech will likely deviate from the issues voters tell pollsters they care about most and take the focus away from herself and President Joe Biden and instead try to flip the election narrative to be a referendum on Trump, White House Reporter Naomi Lim wrote for us this morning. 

“Harris’s democracy argument is a return to former President Joe Biden‘s central campaign message that was criticized by Biden’s detractors and quickly repackaged as ‘joy’ and ‘freedom’ this summer when the vice president replaced him at the top of the Democratic ticket,” she wrote.

“Despite the dark rhetoric before and after Jan. 6, the Harris campaign said that her speech will project optimism and hope and be about the future, not the past, as she promises to prioritize the country and common ground, not the Democratic Party or herself,” she wrote. 

Turning the contest into a judgment of Trump’s character wasn’t working particularly well for Biden when he was the nominee, and trying to return to it now might be too little, too late, some pollsters warn. 

Persuadable voters are mostly familiar with the pros and cons of both candidates and are looking for reasons to vote for one of them rather than against the other. Harris would be wise to highlight Trump’s shortcomings and pair her attacks with messages about why she is a preferable alternative, according to Blueprint, a Democratic polling firm. 

“Harris’s winning closing message with undecided and swing state voters?” Blueprint wrote in a memo on Monday. “Real talk on addressing prices, protecting Social Security and Medicare, taxing the wealthiest Americans, taking on big corporations, and emphasizing the buy-in her campaign has from business leaders like Mark Cuban.”

Click here to read more about Harris’s message marking the beginning of the end of her campaign.

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For your radar

Harris will give a speech at the Ellipse at 7 p.m.

Biden will speak in Baltimore, Maryland, about his Investing in America agenda at 2 p.m. 

Trump is speaking to the press from Mar-a-Lago at 10 a.m. before heading to Pennsylvania to participate in a Building America’s Future Community roundtable event in Drexel Hill at 2:30 p.m. He will later host a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, at 7 p.m.

Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) is campaigning in Georgia.

Michelle Obama is headlining a rally in Atlanta, Georgia.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is campaigning in Holland, Michigan. 

Former presidential adviser Steve Bannon was released from prison in Connecticut after serving a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress.