But as Israel’s most important ally, protected from the violent repercussions of responding to the attack, the United States is feeling the political effects of Oct. 7 building as Election Day approaches. 

President Joe Biden felt the pressure immediately. His strong support for Israel responding in force to Hamas, and then Hezbollah to its north a day later, was met with frustration by the left wing of the Democratic Party. He won his essentially uncontested primary in Michigan but not without bleeding support from 100,000 “uncommitted” voters who made it clear they weren’t planning on standing with Democrats unless the plans to support Israel changed. 

Vice President Kamala Harris has fared slightly better, voicing empathy for the plight of Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire between Israel and Hamas. And she has put rhetorical pressure on Israel to change its tactics, frustrating her Republican critics. The balancing act, as Investigative Reporter Barnini Chakraborty wrote for us this morning, has thrown a wrench in the gears of the presidential election and will be a major foreign policy problem for whoever is victorious next month. 

The international politics intruding on domestic politics is landing on two small but influential groups of voters in a handful of swing states. Pro-Palestinian Arab voters want to see more pressure on Israel to pull back on its campaign to eradicate Hamas. Jewish voters, while not unified in support for Israel’s campaign, are conflicted about wanting the bloodshed to end while also desiring to see international support for the tiny outpost of democracy and Western values in the Middle East. 

“Battleground states where the two voting blocs could determine the outcome of the race include North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia,” Barnini wrote. “Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia four years ago, but the nearly 80,000 registered Muslim voters in Georgia exceeded the 11,700-vote margin of his victory.” 

Michigan, in particular, is important for Harris, who needs to lock up the “blue wall” states in the Rust Belt to block former President Donald Trump’s path to 270 Electoral College votes. But while she has made inroads with the “uncommitted” voters who rebelled against Biden, she hasn’t embraced them either — a strategy that is winning over some Jewish voters and leaving the Trump-skeptical rebels questioning how far they want to take their protest. 

Though the Biden-Harris administration has been at the helm for the last year and is receiving most of the attention in response to the country’s support for Israel, Trump has a long record of backing Israel, too. It’s a relationship he is trying to talk about at every turn, in fact. 

“Trump has capitalized on the discontent and has cast himself as Israel’s ‘protector.’” Barnini wrote. “During a speech at the Israeli-American Council summit in Washington, he reiterated his support for Israel and said the Jewish state would soon cease to exist if Harris was elected.”

“It’s total annihilation — that’s what you’re talking about,” he said. “You have a big protector in me. You don’t have a protector on the other side.”

However, in talking about his good relationship with Israel, Trump has drawn plenty of criticism for his crude way of talking about Jewish voters. His demands that Jewish voters flee the Democratic Party and that anyone who doesn’t is a “fool” who should “have their head examined” has left a bitter taste in the mouths of the voters he is trying so hard to recruit. 

Click here to read more about the political ramifications in the U.S. of the attack on Oct. 7 and the world response. 

Harris sends her husband

Most of the attention on Jewish voters has revolved around swing states in the eastern part of the country. But western swing states in the Sun Belt are equally important — and Harris isn’t prepared to abandon them while she has the pressure on Trump in the formerly GOP-friendly Arizona. 

Congressional Reporter Samantha-Jo Roth is in the state for us and is trailing second gentleman Doug Emhoff, who is Jewish himself and hitting the trail to shore up support from the bloc for his wife. 

Emhoff swung by a Republicans for Harris event in Scottsdale on Tuesday, telling voters there he and his wife are trying to win over voters of all stripes and religions, but they recognize the importance of trying to tone down the rise in antisemitism that has exploded in the last year in particular. 

“Whether you’re Jewish or not, this is such a massive issue for us — the way I talk about it is that hate, antisemitism of any kind, any kind of religious persecution, any type of saying, ‘You don’t belong here,’ is like a poison coursing through the veins of our democracy,” Emhoff said. “I approach it not only as a Jewish person, a person of faith, married to a person of faith in Kamala, but it’s terrible for our democracy.”

The appeal is winning over lukewarm voters who aren’t thrilled to support Harris but acknowledge the effort at coalition-building she is making. 

Samantha-Jo spoke with Michael Baer, an independent voter and activist who helped organize the Tuesday event for Harris. Baer said it was “really hard” to agree to help the campaign, given he isn’t the “most enthusiastic” Harris supporter. 

“But I’ve made my decision that I’m voting for her,” he told Samantha-Jo. “So, if I’m going to vote for her, then I should be comfortable talking to people about why I’m voting for her and letting people know that.” 

A key to winning over Baer was Harris and the Democrats’ strong stance on keeping anti-Israel speakers off the stage at the Democratic National Convention this summer. When he saw they weathered criticism for not balancing out an appearance by the parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, an American hostage who was held by Hamas before being killed in Gaza, it sealed his belief Harris would match Biden’s promise to support Israel. 

“They didn’t give equal air time to pro-Palestinian voices that are espousing these falsehoods that are calling Israel a genocidal country — she didn’t give them oxygen. I know it’s probably a political move, I mean, I hope not, I hope it’s genuine,” he said. “In order to get elected, she knows she has to move to the center. She knows she needs independent voices like me to support her.”

Click here to read more about Harris’s efforts to win over Jewish voters.

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For your radar

Biden and Harris will receive a briefing on preparations for Hurricane Milton and the response to Hurricane Helene at noon. The president will hold a call with rabbis to commemorate the Jewish High Holidays at 2:15 p.m. and will meet with Taoiseach Simon Harris in the Oval Office at 3:15 p.m. 

Biden will deliver remarks about Hurricane Milton at 5:30 p.m. 

Harris has no appearances on her public schedule.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief reporters at 1:30 p.m.

Trump will hold a rally in Biden’s hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, at 3 p.m. before campaigning in Reading, Pennsylvania, in the evening. He will also participate in a town hall with Univision at 10 p.m. in Miami.