Warning signs were there that Assad’s grip in Syria was faltering – Washington Examiner
The article discusses the rapid decline of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, noting that while there were signs of his government struggling to maintain control, the speed of its downfall surprised many experts. For over a decade, Assad had relied on alliances with iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, but when faced with a new threat, these allies largely failed to support him. The lack of backing, coupled with poor morale among his troops due to inadequate pay and abandonment, significantly contributed to the regime’s collapse.
Key opposition forces, including the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, played a crucial role in exerting pressure on Assad’s military. The article highlights the unexpected quickness of the regime’s crumbling, with cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Homs falling to opposition forces without substantial resistance. Despite attempts by Assad to raise soldiers’ salaries to boost morale,the damage had been done,leading to a foreseen but abrupt downfall of his government. The situation reflects on the changing dynamics in Syria and the shift in support for Assad from his conventional allies.
Warning signs were there that Assad’s grip in Syria was faltering
There were indications that Bashar Assad’s regime could struggle to maintain its grip on power in Syria — but the military assault that ended his family’s more than 50-year reign happened much faster than some experts expected.
Assad relied on allies to maintain power during the civil war that commenced more than a decade ago, but when his forces were faced with a new threat starting in late November, they were on their own. Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia did not come to his aid, though Moscow did purportedly allow him to seek refuge there.
The U.S. intelligence community often conducts assessments to determine a military’s “will to fight,” though it’s not an exact science. Poor morale among troops, limited pay, and seeing that no one was coming to their aid likely contributed to the demise of Assad’s forces.
Despite the degradation of Assad’s troops, it still required a strong opposition to come together in a coordinated way to put pressure on them. Hayat Tahrir al Sham, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, was the primary opposition force involved in bringing down Assad’s regime.
“There was a window of opportunity, but no one expected the regime to crumble this fast. Everyone expected some fight,” said Bassam Al Kuwatli, president of the Syrian Liberal Party, a small opposition group who is based outside Syria, according to Reuters.
In a desperate attempt to salvage his reign, Assad promised to increase the salaries of active-duty soldiers by 50%. But the morale of his troops had been degraded too significantly for any meaningful change.
The U.S. has been aware that Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia’s capabilities had been degraded in their own conflicts and could see Assad’s opposition forces make major territorial gains leading up to the regime’s collapse. None of Assad’s backers came to his support as cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Homs fell to the opposition forces.
“I think it’s safe to say the complete collapse of the regime, and the speed with which this has transpired, unfolded rapidly,” a senior administration official said. “I think if I had been on this call a week ago, and I’ve said this — where we’d be in a week, I think — and all the intel analysts I spoke to, experts believe the regime is very brittle. Russia and Iran do not have the capacity to help in the way it used to.”
“So I don’t, wouldn’t use the word ‘surprised,’ because when this started to break out last week, and we saw the fall of Aleppo, we started to prepare for all possible contingencies,” the official explained. “And again, [we] have been working on the ground [in] a number of ways … and preparing for the potentiality of this moment that we saw unfold over the last 24 hours.”
Iran had supported Assad, as had its proxy, Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon, but has been severely compromised by its war against Israel. Tehran has sought to prop up Assad, an ally, and destabilize Iraq so that it could have a direct land route from its own country to Lebanon, where it could supply and arm Hezbollah.
“The Iranians suffer a major strategic defeat if the Assad government is replaced by some other kind of government that takes an uncooperative attitude toward Lebanese Hezbollah because their land bridge to Lebanon is cut,” Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told the New York Times. “It’s a big blow to any hope Iran may have had for a slow, steady rebuilding of Hezbollah.”
Russia’s war in Ukraine has dragged on for so long that it has sought military assistance from the likes of Iran and North Korea.
“The upshot for all this is, for the first time ever, neither Russia nor Iran nor Hezbollah could defend this abhorrent regime in Syria,” President Joe Biden said. “And this is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine, Israel have delivered upon their own self-defense with unflagging support of the United States.”
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The U.S. intelligence community has struggled to gauge how strong the “will to fight” among militaries is in a couple of recent conflicts. It expected the Afghanistan Army to hold up better than it did in August 2021. Meanwhile, it did not expect Ukraine to put up the fight against Russia that it has to date.
Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said last month the agency has begun trying to create a methodology to determine the “will to fight” of a certain military.
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