‘We always wait,’ Zelensky laments constant delays, as analysts say Russia enjoys tactical advantage in Ukraine

‘WE ALWAYS WAIT’: It’s been the same story since the beginning of the war. The U.S. and its NATO partners debate and dither over what kinds of weapons to send to Ukraine, in what quantities, and how fast, and in the end, the final result is too little too late.

At yesterday’s NATO Forum, Secretary of State Antony Blinken proudly announced the first tranche of F-16 fighter jets, which Ukraine has been begging for, literally for years, are finally being shipped to the country. “I’m also pleased to announce that, as we speak, the transfer of F-16 jets is underway, coming from Denmark, coming from the Netherlands,” Blinken said. “Those jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer.”

As always, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed effusive gratitude for the planes, additional Patriot missile systems, and other air defenses, even though later, in an interview airing on Fox News, he glumly lamented that the F-16s are not being supplied in sufficient numbers to make a difference.

“The problem with F-16, the answer is the number and the dates,” Zelensky told Fox’s Bret Baier. “Russia uses 300 jets on the territory of Ukraine, 300 jets. We have a decision about some 10, 20. Even if we will have 50, we will not, I mean, compare with them in the sky.”

“They’re coming this summer, right?” said Baier.

“I hope so,” replied Zelensky. “We always wait.”

BLINKEN SAYS ‘TRANSFER OF F-16S’ TO UKRAINE ‘IS UNDERWAY’

ANALYSIS: RUSSIA MAKING GAINS ‘AT AN ALARMING RATE’: The Hudson Institute is the latest Washington think tank to review the current situation along the front lines in Ukraine and conclude the advantage for the moment lies with Russia, in large part because of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to sustain horrific casualties.

“Russian forces made tactical gains at an alarming rate and have been adding troops to their axis of assault in southern Ukraine,” writes Hudson analyst Can Kasapoglu, in his latest Ukraine Military Situation Report. “This week Ukrainian forces partially withdrew from areas around the town of Chasiv Yar, particularly the Kanal District, where Russian units captured tactically important positions. These developments signaled that Moscow has gained the tactical upper hand after weeks of deadly clashes.”

Ukrainian troops have been forced to retreat to “better-protected positions” as Russian forces close in on the strategic village of Chasiv Yar. “While the Russian military has made tangible advances, available drone footage shows that fighting has already reduced the town to rubble,” Kasapoglu writes.

While Ukraine has been able to use its drones in successful strikes against key Russian assets, including a radar system in southern Russia that is critical to its strategic radar networks, Russia has been trying to “beat Ukraine at its own game,” Kasapoglu writes.

“Last week, Russia struck several critical military airfields in Ukraine, including the Myrhorod, Poltava, and Dolgintsevo air bases. Targeted in multiple rounds of strikes, the bases house important aerial assets such as Su-27 and MiG-29 fighter jets and Mi-24 gunships,” he says. “These moves hint at the Kremlin’s increasing tactical intelligence and strike capabilities, which place already scarce Ukrainian aerial combat platforms under increased risk.”

In his Fox interview, Zelensky again complained about the U.S. restrictions on the use of long-range ATACMS rockets to thwart Russian air attacks. “We have permission to use HIMARS through the border, especially on Kharkiv, and it’s the north of the country. Is it enough? Of course not,” he said, noting Ukraine knows where the Russian planes are based.

“It’s only a little number of those troops and bases from where Russia uses missiles and from where Russia attacks us each day using jets where the jets stay on their bases,” he told Baier.

“Would you want to strike them?” asked Baier.

“Yes,” replied Zelensky. “But we can’t. Somebody except us have to say yes.”

NATO UNVEILS IMMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM PLANS FOR UKRAINE SUPPORT

NOT A STALEMATE: The Biden administration disputes the perception that after more than two years, the grinding war of attrition has devolved into a stalemate.

“I think this is a very dynamic front all the way from the northeast to the south, a lot of fighting. The Ukrainians are now beginning to push the Russians back,” John Kirby, White House national security communications adviser, said on CNN. “They are failing in some of their attempts to take certain towns and villages and are moving back. So, it’s a very dynamic front. I don’t think that I would describe it as a stalemate.”

Zelensky blames the setbacks on the lag between the time Western allies announce new arms packages, and the time it actually gets to frontline troops.

“We have this challenge that, from the moment of decision to the moment of equipment, you need much time,” he said. “Putin understood. He tried to occupy Kharkiv. We lost some villages which are through the border, our border. And he didn’t have success. So we stopped them. He lost a lot of people, and speaking about thousands and dozens — thousands of people. So the price of this operation for him was very high.”

PUTIN STILL BELIEVES HE CAN OUTLAST UKRAINE AND NATO

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden has a busy day as NATO wraps up its 75th anniversary summit in Washington. He will participate in today’s final two working sessions at the Washington Convention Center with his fellow NATO leaders, taking a break in between for a one-on-one meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at 1:30 p.m.

At 4:15 p.m., Biden hosts an event on the Ukraine Compact. However, the main event—at least as it pertains to Biden’s uncertain political future—is his 5:30 p.m. end-of-summit news conference. All eyes will be on how well he can project vigor and mental acuity as calls for him to step aside grow louder.

DEMOCRATS’ PANIC NOT SUBSIDING AS BIDEN SEEKS TO RUN OUT CLOCK ON SWAP

BIDEN’S SUPPORT CRUMBLING: Even if Biden manages to deliver a sterling performance at today’s news conference, he will face concerns that he’s just having one of his good days and that the number of bad days—such as the debate disaster—will only increase in the months and years to come.

“In the last four years, he’s won many of the battles he’s faced. But the one battle he cannot win is the fight against time. None of us can,” wrote actor George Clooney, in the New York Times. Clooney, a fervent Biden supporter who headlined a fundraiser for him just last month, was shocked at the extent Biden had deteriorated since their last meeting.

“It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe “big F-ing deal” Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate,” he wrote. “Joe Biden is a hero; he saved democracy in 2020. We need him to do it again in 2024.”

In an op-ed in the Washington Post, Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) called Biden “a man of uncommon decency” but said, “We cannot unsee President Biden’s disastrous debate performance. We cannot ignore or dismiss the valid questions raised since that night.”

I understand why President Biden wants to run. He saved us from Donald Trump once and wants to do it again. But he needs to reassess whether he is the best candidate to do so. In my view, he is not,” Welch writes. “For the good of the country, I’m calling on President Biden to withdraw from the race.”

FIRST DEMOCRATIC SENATOR CALLS ON BIDEN TO WITHDRAW FROM RACE

PUTIN’S ALLY IN NATO: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to test the bounds of his country’s obligations as a member of NATO for a quarter of a century. Orban’s visits to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing this past week saw him consistently pressing for ceasefire talks that would play into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to end the war while keeping all the territory he now controls in Ukraine.

Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who is in town for the NATO conference, argues that Ukraine has effectively lost the war and it is time to sue for peace. “The strategy, which was followed by E.U. and NATO for the last two and a half years, simply didn’t deliver any results because the situation is worsening,” Szijjarto said on CNN. “You see the brutal attacks. You see the risk of escalation. You see the cruelty on the battlefield. And I think it will get worse. So if we are not able to stop the war, there will be thousands, tens or hundreds of thousands more people dying.”

“American citizens have paid for this whole bunch of weapons, and did it improve the situation on the battlefield? No, it didn’t,” Szijjarto said. “Russia is still there. The Russian army is moving forward. Ukraine could not gain success on the battlefield.”

Orban has endorsed Donald Trump’s bid to return to office, and Szijjarto complained that under Biden and Obama before him, relations with the United States have been terrible. “During the Democratic administration, we had the tragic, tragic relationship. So we want good U.S.-Hungarian relationship. And our experience says that when President Trump is the president, then we have a much better hope for good relationships.”

“When President Trump was in office, the U.S.-Hungary relationship was the best ever,” he said.

OPINION: NATO HEADQUARTERS NEEDS RELOCATING TO WARSAW

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: US to send delayed shipment of 500-pound bombs to Israel

Washington Examiner: China has become ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war in Ukraine: NATO

Washington Examiner: NATO unveils immediate and long-term plans for Ukraine support

Washington Examiner: NATO allies see danger from China and Russia in space

Washington Examiner: NATO allies accuse Russia of sponsoring terrorist attacks in their countries

Washington Examiner: Blinken says ‘transfer of F-16s’ to Ukraine ‘is underway’

Washington Examiner: Rep. Gimenez sounds alarm over ‘national security concern’ after TSA ‘security breach’

Washington Examiner: Republicans eyeing Harris’s record as ‘border czar’ should she replace Biden

Washington Examiner: Border Patrol agent in Texas dies in line of duty

Washington Examiner: Opinion: NATO headquarters needs relocating to Warsaw

AP: Ukraine Is on an ‘Irreversible’ Path to NATO. But Only After War with Russia Ends

Washington Post: NATO leaders move to ‘Trump-proof’ the alliance in Washington

Defense News: As More NATO Countries Meet Spending Targets, Some Push to Raise Goals

Breaking Defense: NATO Updates AI Strategy for the Age of ChatGPT

DefenseScoop: NATO Readies to Launch First-of-Its-Kind Integrated Cyber Defense Center

Wall Street Journal: High-Tech American Weapons Work Against Russia—Until They Don’t

Washington Post: Britain’s new government vows to prioritize Ukraine fight

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Russian Jamming Is Wreaking Havoc on GPS in Eastern Europe. But Is It Hybrid Warfare?

Air & Space Forces Magazine: NATO Plans Upgrades for Air and Missile Defense on Its Eastern Flank

Washington Post: U.S., Allies Say They Took Down Russian Propaganda Mill Powered By AI

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Wilsbach: Air Force Should Keep the Block 20 F-22s It Asked to Retire

The War Zone: Surplus A-10 Warthogs Could End Up in the Jordanian Air Force

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New USAF Commanders Take Over in Japan, Facing ‘Increasingly Aggressive’ Actors

Washington Times: Lawmaker Warns Pentagon About China’s Maritime Actions

Reuters: Taiwan Monitors Surge In Chinese Military Activity As Beijing’s Carrier Exercises In Pacific

AFP: 66 Chinese Aircraft Surround Taiwan In Biggest Sortie Of Year

Breaking Defense: Ukraine’s Seaborne Success An ‘Arbiter’ Of Future Naval Warfare: NATO SACEUR

Stars and Stripes: USS Eisenhower’s Combat Deployment Offers Lessons For Sailors Across The Navy

Breaking Defense: U.S. Intel Agency Publishes Imagery It Says Links Iranian Weapons To Houthi Attacks

SpaceNews: X-Bow Raises $70 Million to Boost Solid Rocket Motor Production

Military.com: Feds Say Air Force Employee Skipped Key Maintenance Ahead of 2017 Plane Crash that Killed 16 Troops

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lucky Strike: The F-15E That Downed a Helo With a Bomb Just Hit 15,000 Flight Hours

The Cipher Brief: As NATO Marks A Milestone, Critics Blast Slow Pace of Ukraine Aid

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Why NATO Would Be Stronger With Ukraine As a Member

THE CALENDAR:

THURSDAY | JULY 11

8 a.m. 801 Allen Y. Lew Pl. NW — The North Atlantic Treaty Organization Washington Summit final day. Full schedule at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events

9 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on pending nominations http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council, Center for a New American Security, German Marshall Fund, U.S., GLOBSEC, and Hudson Institute 2024 NATO Public Forum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJDInbKh9U4

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies “South China Sea Conference,” with Kathryn Paik, CSIS senior fellow; Charles Edel, CSIS Australia chair; Andreyka Natalegawa, CSIS associate fellow; Harrison Pretat, deputy director, CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative; and Gregory Poling, director, CSIS Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/fourteenth-annual-south-china-sea-conference

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What Happened, NATO Summit?” with former Assistant Defense Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Mark Lippert, CSIS Korea chair; Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Max Bergmann, director, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Victor Cha, CSIS senior vice president for Asia https://www.csis.org/events/what-happened-nato-summit

10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “The Looming Israel-Hezbollah War: Prospects, Deterrence, and Impacts,” with Joseph Bahout, director, American University of Beirut’s Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs; Rola El-Husseini, associate professor of political science at Lund University; Paul Salem, Middle East Institute vice president for international engagement; Imad Harb, Arab Center director of research and analysis; and Patricia Karam, Arab Center nonresident fellow https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Air and Missile Defense in the High North,” with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); retired Army Gen. Charles Jacoby, chair, U.S. Military Academy at West Point’s Modern War Institute and former commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command; and Tom Karako, senior fellow, CSIS International Security Program and director, CSIS Missile Defense Project https://www.csis.org/events/air-and-missile-defense-high-north

2:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “NATO, Trump and the Latest in Ukraine,” with former White House national security adviser John Bolton https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live7 p.m. 101 Independence Ave. SE — Library of Congress hosts the 75th Anniversary NATO Symphony Orchestra Concert with musician Peter Frampton

FRIDAY | JULY 12

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Israel’s Missile Defense Engagements Since October 7th,” with Moshe Patel, director, Israel Missile Defense Organization; and Tom Karako, senior fellow, CSIS International Security Program and director, CSIS Missile Defense Project https://www.csis.org/events/israels-missile-defense-engagements-october-7th

9:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion: “Europe’s Security After the Washington Summit,” with Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Radoslaw Sikorski; Kori Schake, AEI director of foreign and defense policy studies; and Dalibor Rohac, AEI senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/europes-security-after-the-washington-summit

10:45 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Bolstering Transatlantic Security and Solidarity,” with Jan Jires, director general of defense policy and planning, Czech Ministry of Defense; Lt. Gen. Karel Rehka, chief, General Staff, Czech Armed Forces; J.R. McDonald, vice president for business development at Lockheed Martin; Valbona Zeneli, nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council Europe Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, fellow, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/bolstering-transatlantic-security

11 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Beyond the Summit: Outcomes and the Path Forward to Ukraine’s NATO Membership,” with Paul Good, president, Ukrainian World Congress; Nico Lange, senior fellow, Munich Security Conference; Michal Szczerba, member, European Parliament (via video); former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Shelby Magid, deputy director, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/beyond-the-summit-outcomes

12:15 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Next Steps for Transatlantic Cooperation Post-NATO Summit,” with Czech Republic President Petr Pavel; Jan Jires, director general of defense policy and planning, Czech Defense Ministry; Karel Rehka, chief, general staff, Czech Armed Forces; former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs and former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, fellow, Atlantic Council; and Valbona Zeneli, nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/czech-president

TUESDAY | JULY 16

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual and in-person book discussion: The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century, with author Sir Robin Niblett, distinguished fellow, Chatham House; and John Hamre, CSIS President and CEO, and Langone Chair in American Leadership https://www.csis.org/events/new-cold-war-conversation-sir-robin-niblett

WEDNESDAY | JULY 24

11:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Cyber landscape, terrorism threat and transnational repression,” with Matthew Olsen, assistant attorney general for national security https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2024/07/24/matt-olsen2 p.m. House Chamber — Joint meeting of the House and Senate to receive an address from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu