West Virginia primary election paves the way for the post-Manchin era

In ruby-red West Virginia, the primary election on Tuesday is expected to be where most of the action will take place this cycle, with critical races for governor and Congress hanging in the balance.

A new wave of leadership is expected in the Mountain State, with open races for governor, Senate, and House set to generate a revolving door of familiar faces in West Virginia politics. Former President Donald Trump carried the state with nearly 69% of the vote in 2020, and after this election cycle, it’s likely West Virginia will be left with no Democrats in either chamber of Congress for the first time since 1921.

“The thing about West Virginia is our primary election on Tuesday is effectively the election,” Sam Workman, the director of the West Virginia University Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs, said.

Even after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) decided not to run for reelection in November, outside spending continued to grow in West Virginia. According to Open Secrets, the West Virginia Senate race is the fourth most expensive this primary season.

The least competitive race is the one on top of the ticket, in which President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to win easily on Tuesday. Both have already sealed enough delegates for the Democratic and Republican Party nominations.

Race for new West Virginia governor

Six Republicans are facing off to be the Republican nominee for governor, as Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) is term-limited and is pursuing a run for Senate.

The field includes state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, former state Rep. Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, State Secretary of State Mac Warner, and two lesser-known candidates, Kevin Christian and Mitch Roberts.

Many of the candidates running have previous ties to West Virginia politics. Morrisey ran against Manchin in 2018, former state Rep. Moore Capito’s mother is Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and Chris Miller’s mother is current Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV).

“It’s a small state — I get reporters all the time that complain about how interconnected all of our politicians are and how connected they are to coal,” Workman explained.

An Emerson College Polling-Hill survey found Morrisey is leading with 28%, with Shelley Moore Capito following close behind with 25%. Miller was in third place with 19%, and Warner came in fourth with 12% in the survey released in May.

Moore Capito jumped 11 points, from 14% in March to 25% in the most recent polls, putting him in close proximity to Morrisey’s lead when considering the poll’s 4.1% margin of error.

On the Democratic side, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams is running unopposed.

Open Senate Seat

Over a year ago, Justice announced his intention to run for Senate, a move designed to pressure Manchin to step aside, which has now all but ensured the seat is safely in Republican hands. His entrance into the race was a major win for establishment Republicans after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) spent months recruiting the term-limited governor.

Justice’s top competitor is Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV), who has the endorsement and financial firepower of the conservative Club for Growth. Five other lesser-known Republican candidates are running and will appear on the ballot.

The five-term congressman is facing an uphill battle against the state’s popular two-term governor, who was recruited and endorsed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Trump also endorsed Justice.

The move has heightened tensions with the right flank of the party, who have not been shy about backing their own picks. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rand Paul (R-KY), Mike Lee (R-UT), and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) have endorsed Mooney, and many have campaigned with him in West Virginia.

Mooney continues to bring up Justice’s past as a former Democrat who switched to the Republican Party in 2017 and scrutiny over a string of legal challenges against his family’s coal empire. However, experts aren’t sure those lines of attack will resonate with voters.

“The reality is that this was always going to be the current governor’s race. He has a commanding lead and despite problems with his finances and business dealings, despite Rep. Mooney’s best efforts to sort of attack him from the right — [Justice] is going to be victorious on Tuesday,” Workman said.

The winner will go on to face the Democratic candidate who wins the primary. Manchin recently endorsed Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, who was an aide to Democratic Sen. Robert C. Byrd and is pro-union. Elliott is facing former coal company CEO Don Blankenship, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for the seat in 2018, and Marine veteran Zach Shrewsbury for the Democratic nomination.

West Virginia’s 1st District: Incumbent faces Jan. 6 rioter

In West Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV) is facing a primary challenge from Derrick Evans, a former West Virginia lawmaker who served time after livestreaming himself on Jan. 6, 2021, storming the U.S. Capitol.

Evans was charged with five criminal counts, including obstructing an official proceeding. In 2022, he pleaded guilty to one felony count of civil disorder.

Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), the House Freedom Caucus chairman, was the only member of Congress to endorse Evans in addition to former national security adviser Michael Flynn and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell.

The Republican Jewish Coalition recently endorsed Miller, calling her “a strong ally to the Jewish community.” Miller currently has a cash advantage in the race, and Evans is viewed as a long shot to unseat an established incumbent.

The winner of the primary will face either Chris Reed or Jim Umberger in November, who are running in the Democratic primary for the district.

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