There’s angst heading into Election Day among Republicans, who are questioning how deep their bench will be — or if they’ll even have control.

“They should take it back. It’d be theirs to lose,” said GOP strategist Rick Tyler, who’s worked for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich. “But I don’t think it’s in the bag for them.”

Republicans are heading into the 2024 election with an advantage of the map. Nearly all of the competitive seats are controlled by Democrats or independents who caucus with Democrats, giving the GOP the upper hand in the closing days of campaigning to flip the chamber.

“The last cycle, they were supposed to have done really well, and they didn’t,” Tyler said. “They came up very short and didn’t gain the majority.”

With a pickup in West Virginia after the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), Republicans likely need to flip just one more across more than a half-dozen states held by Democrats in Montana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Arizona to clench the majority.

That’s proving tougher than the party had hoped. Republicans are ahead in just one state, Montana, and are facing tougher-than-expected reelection fights in the GOP strongholds of Texas and Nebraska.

Narrowly securing the majority with one seat would spell victory but with a caveat: leadership’s eroded power at the hands of any one Republican, particularly those who are more centrist. Democrats experienced a similar fate the past four years with 50-50 and 51-49 splits. The prospect is driving the GOP’s last-ditch efforts to score pickups in states beyond the Democrats’ most vulnerable seat, held by Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).

“They need a stronger cushion,” Republication strategist John Feehery said. “If they only have 51, I can see [Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)] making things very difficult for the GOP leadership.”

In the Arizona race between Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) that “leans Democrat,” GOP strategist Barrett Marson sees their chances to pick up the seat as “cooked.” Lake consistently trails Gallego to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), which some Republicans see as a missed opportunity.

“She’s snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,” Marson said of Lake, who maintains she won the 2022 gubernatorial race against now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ). “She has grabbed onto the ‘MAGA’ mantle and embraces it even tighter than a mama bear embraces her cub.”

Senate Democrats in battleground contests have run circles around GOP opponents when it comes to fundraising but are still trailing Republicans in past and future ad reservations in the four races rated “toss-ups,” which include Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, according to ad-tracking firm Ad Impact. In Arizona, Republicans are spending less than half of that of Democrats on the airwaves, another indication of where the GOP sees the race heading.

Republicans say there are optimistic signs in the “leans Democrat” state of Nevada, where Republican Sam Brown is taking on Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV).

“A couple weeks ago, I would have said Rosen is in really good shape, and it would be almost impossible to beat her,” a Nevada GOP operative said. “Republicans have maintained a lead in early and mail-in voting. That’s never happened before in this state.”

Republicans are facing differences in internal polling between their Senate campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and the top Senate GOP super PAC tied to McConnell, the Senate Leadership Fund. Leaked memos show the NRSC predicting an optimistic 53-seat majority compared to SLF’s more pessimistic 51-seat prediction.

A senior GOP Senate aide split the difference, telling the Washington Examiner that a 52-plus-seat majority was well within reach. They predicted Montana and at least one other state between Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin would go red.

Tyler said he’d be “surprised” if Republicans emerged from November with anything greater than a one-seat margin and that the reelection fight facing his former boss, Cruz, should be under greater scrutiny. Facing Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), Cruz’s contest “leans Republican” but has featured some recent polling showing the two in a virtual dead heat.

“I don’t feel like there’s an overwhelming mandate to give the Republicans the Senate this cycle. But it will be close,” Tyler said. “They should gain it because it really is in their favor.”