What to watch in Arizona’s state primaries on Tuesday

Voters in the Grand Canyon State are expected to head to the polls on Tuesday. The outcome of those races will set the stage for critical contests that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and House. 

The election was moved up a week as part of a law signed earlier in the year that made some election administration changes.

Arizona has the largest Latino population share of any battleground state, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Maricopa County also represents the largest battleground county, a former Republican stronghold that went for President Joe Biden in 2020 narrowly. Here are the races to watch in Arizona on primary night.

Senate race

This primary is expected to result in the outcome of a competitive race between GOP hopeful and former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) to replace outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). Sinema was elected as a Democrat but became an independent in 2022 and she announced in March she would not seek a second term.

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Gallego is running unopposed in Tuesday’s primary. Lake is competing in a GOP primary with Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is her main competition in the three-candidate field. After receiving the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and out-fundraising her competitors in the Republican race, Lake has focused her messaging on Gallego and the Biden administration. According to the last campaign finance report in early July, Lake had $2.1 million in cash-on-hand, in comparison to Lamb’s $263,000. 

Gallego has nearly $8.2 million on hand, according to campaign finance records. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates this race as lean Democratic. Experts say that even though Trump has been leading in recent polling in the Grand Canyon State, Republicans in the state have a history of rejecting the former president and the candidates he has endorsed in the past.

“In his two elections so far, Trump has not crossed the 50% threshold,” Barrett Marson, a GOP strategist in Arizona, said. “Even when he won the state, he still only had 48[%] or 49% in 2016.”

Since Sinema’s victory in 2018, Arizona has transformed from a solid red state to one of the country’s most competitive battlegrounds. In 2020, Biden’s victory in the state over former President Donald Trump helped him secure the White House. In December 2020, Arizona had two Democratic senators for the first time since 1952 after Mark Kelly was sworn in. In 2022, Lake and three other Republicans running for major statewide offices lost. It was the first time Democrats held all major statewide positions since 1950.

1st Congressional District 

Seven-term Rep. David Schweikert is facing a Republican primary against former FBI agent Kim George and businessman Robert Backie. Schweikert is the front-runner and leads both fields in fundraising.

On the Democratic side, Andrei Cherney, an ex-state party chairman, and Conor O’Callaghan, an investment banker, have raised the most money. Both candidates brought in more than $2 million as of the July 10 deadline. A former local news anchor, Marlene Galan-Woods, medical doctor, Amish Shah, and orthodontist Andrew Horne are included in the field of candidates. 

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report ranks the race as a toss-up. In 2022, Schweikert won reelection by less than one percentage point, making him a critical target for Democrats in the battleground state. 

“I am interested to see what shakes out of that up there, to see who’s going to oppose Schweikert. I think Schweikert is very vulnerable,” said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican strategist in Arizona who left the party during the Trump era.

3rd Congressional District

Gallego’s Senate run has left an open seat up for grabs. The frontrunners for the Democratic nomination include former state Sen. Raquel Teran and former city councilwoman Yassamin Ansari. Teran has the endorsements of Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Ansari has the backing of Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) and has raised closer to $2 million compared to Teran’s 1.2 million, according to campaign finance records. 

Polls put these two neck and neck for the primary, which will likely determine who becomes the next member of Congress for this deep blue district. The district is a Democratic stronghold that went 75% for Biden in 2020. Gallego has been representing the seat since 2014.

6th Congressional District 

Incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) is facing a Republican primary from rival Kathleen Winn. Ciscomani is significantly out-fundraising his opponent, with $2.7 million in cash-on-hand, compared to Winn, who has $26,000. 

The winner of the primary will go on to face Democrat Kirsten Engel, who already lost to Ciscomani in 2022 by a little over 5,000 votes. Engle reported $3.2 million on hand and has been out fundraising Ciscomani. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates this race as a toss-up.

8th Congressional District

The retirement of Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) has resulted in a competitive GOP primary, with six candidates vying for the chance to represent this comfortably red district. 

The top contenders are Blake Masters, the former GOP Senate candidate who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Abe Hamadeh, the GOP’s nominee for Arizona attorney general in 2022, and state Assembly Speaker Ben Toma, who has the endorsement of Lesko. Former Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ), who left office after a scandal in which he tried to convince aides to be a surrogate for him and his wife, is also in the race.

Trump endorsed two candidates in the Republican primary over the weekend, in an effort to resolve the problem that he and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), made competing endorsements. Hamadeh had previously been the only candidate to get a Trump endorsement in the race, while Masters had scored an endorsement from Vance. 

While Trump called both candidates “spectacular,” he noted that Masters was a “very successful businessman” and “an incredibly strong supporter” of the MAGA movement. He said Hamadeh was “a fearless fighter for election integrity.”

“I think Trump flipped for money purposes, and now he endorsed both candidates for the seat,” Coughlin said. “I sense that Masters has the momentum going into this race.”

There has been limited polling for this race so far but has shown both Hamadeh and Masters in the lead. According to campaign finance reports, Masters has spent over $3 million so far, with $3.5 million of his $4 million in receipts coming from candidate loans. Hamadeh has spent $1.2 million, $400,000 of which is coming from his own pocket. Toma has raised more than $1 million in the race. Only $43,000 of the $643,000 Franks raised came from donors; the rest was a loan.