What to watch in Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska primaries

With just a handful of states left to hold their primaries in 2024, Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming are up next on Tuesday to see who will win the Democratic or Republican nominations for House and Senate seats.

In Alaska, eyes are on the sole House seat as vulnerable Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) seeks to defend her seat as the first House Democratic representative in five decades. In Wyoming and Florida, top GOP senators are hoping to defend their seats, while eyes will also be on Rep. Matt Gaetz‘s (R-FL) House race as he faces a challenger backed by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

All three states voted for former President Donald Trump in the 2016 and 2020 races, by significant margins in Alaska and Wyoming. However, ranked choice voting in Alaska helped congressional Democrats get a foot in the door of an otherwise solid red stronghold and is on track to do so again in November 2024.

Peltola seeks reelection in Alaska

Alaska’s only race on Tuesday’s ballot will be the lone House seat represented by Peltola, who won a special election in August 2022 and a full term later that year in the November general election. The death of Rep. Don Young, the longest-serving House Republican in history, opened the floodgates to challengers from both parties.

Peltola defeated 47 contenders in the special primary race, including former GOP Gov. and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Republican Nick Begich. Begich is back for round three this year, battling against Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom for Republican votes.

Alaska is unique in that it uses a garbage primary and a ranked choice voting system for its general election. In the primary, the top four vote-getters advance to the general election. In November, voters will rank their preferences, and the candidate to receive 50% of the vote initially wins. If no one does, candidates are eliminated and the votes reallocated based on who a voter put as their second choice if their first choice is disqualified.

Peltola won the 2022 elections partially due to ranked choice voting and partially because of GOP infighting between Palin and Begich and their allies. This year, Begich and Dahlstrom have pledged to focus their attacks on Peltola and not each other — a contrast from 2022, when Peltola could rely on positive messaging and Republican mudslinging to skate by.

The incumbent congresswoman holds a significant fundraising advantage over Begich and Dahlstrom. Peltola’s campaign reported having $2.8 million cash on hand as of July 31, compared to Dahlstrom with $317,617 and Begich with $172,548. Peltola’s campaign has raised more than $7.5 million this cycle, compared to Begich’s $983,000 and Dahlstrom’s $912,000.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democrat” due to the presence of two Republican candidates once again. Peltola won in a state that voted for Trump by 10 percentage points mostly because Republicans could not consolidate behind one candidate the way Democrats did. This allowed Peltola to run a centrist campaign and build up a coalition of independents, Democrats, and even some GOP voters.

Begich has confirmed to the Washington Examiner he will withdraw from the race if he comes behind Dahlstrom in the primary. Dahlstrom has made no such pledge, meaning Republicans could face another repeat of 2022 if both candidates remain in the general race.

Most polls in Alaska close at 12 a.m. Eastern time, with the last polls closing at 1 a.m. Eastern time.

Gaetz McCarthy feud comes to head

Eyes will be on Matt Gaetz’s race in Florida as he fights a battle of personal and party identity in the state’s 1st Congressional District.

Gaetz will face Aaron Dimmock, who is backed by McCarthy. McCarthy was ousted after Gaetz and seven other House Republicans joined all Democrats in voting to remove the former congressman as speaker last fall.

The House subsequently devolved into chaos for three weeks, showing a clear division between establishment Republicans, who backed McCarthy, and hardline conservatives who were upset with McCarthy working with Democrats to pass a government spending deal.

That theme of GOP infighting has been present through much of the 2023-2024 Congress under Republican leadership, with some hardliners like Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) suffering defeat in his primary due to fracturing of support within the GOP Freedom Caucus.

Gaetz himself backed Good, pitting himself against former President Donald Trump, who held a vendetta against Good for originally endorsing Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) as the GOP nominee for president. However, Trump is still supporting Gaetz and endorsed him in May.

The Florida congressman has raised $5 million this cycle in an effort to boost support among primary voters ahead of Tuesday. Polling shows Gaetz has a sizable lead in the race, but Dimmock, a moderate Republican and retired Navy pilot, is gaining thanks to the financial support from McCarthy and his allies.

“Usually I’ve had a resource advantage when I’ve run,” Gaetz told NPR on Friday. “I’m going to be outspent 3 or 4 to 1 in this contest because Kevin McCarthy has mobilized the millions of dollars he had in his political committees to run advertisements against me.”

While the race will determine where Florida Republicans fall on the conservative spectrum, the contest will also bring McCarthy and Gaetz’s personal feud to a head. The former speaker blames Gaetz for leading the charge to remove him from the top House leadership position, arguing it was payback for an Ethics Committee investigation into allegations that Gaetz was tied to sex trafficking and drugs. Gaetz has repeatedly denied the claims.

The two men also clashed at the Republican National Convention, forcing security to step between them after Gaetz taunted McCarthy during a live interview he was conducting with CNN.

“What night are you speaking? Are you speaking tonight?” Gaetz asked mockingly.

“He’s got an ethics complaint about paying, sleeping with a 17-year-old,” McCarthy told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins without looking at Gaetz, then pivoted back to his answer in the interview.

McCarthy later told NBC News that Gaetz “probably shouldn’t be on the streets” but “unfortunately,” the Florida Republican is still in Congress.

Great Scott… elsewhere in Florida

Other Florida races to watch include Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who is likely to face former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in November. Mucarsel-Powell was ousted in 2020 by Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) and is heavily favored to win her Democratic primary against three other competitors.

The general election race, which originally was thought to be an easy win for Republicans, is turning more competitive thanks to Mucarsel-Powell’s large fundraising intake.

FEC reports on July 31 show Mucarsel-Powell has $4.4 million in her account compared to Scott’s $3.9 million. She raised $14.4 million from donors, with Scott putting in $13.7 million of his own money into the contest. Scott, who barely ousted former Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018, spent $63.6 million of his own money in that race.

Still, a poll from Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research USA released on Aug. 14 found Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by 4 percentage points.

Scott’s race is significant as he has already announced that he plans to run for Senate Republican leader in the next Congress. He is one of three contenders to succeed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), but he is the only contender on the 2024 ballot.

Most polls in Florida close at 7 p.m. Eastern time, with some closing at 8 p.m.

Wyoming Republicans face competitors but no serious bid

This year, only Republicans are facing contested primaries for the state’s Senate seat and sole House seat. The last time a Democrat won statewide office was in 2006, when former Gov. Dave Freudenthal was reelected.

According to the Associated Press, only 11% of the 220,000 registered voters are Democrats, with 81% identifying as Republican.

Though Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) and Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY) are facing primary challengers, neither are in serious danger to lose their seats.

Barrasso, who has represented Wyoming since 2007, is facing businessman Reid Rasner. Rasner has spent $1.2 million, with his fundraising including a $1.18 million campaign loan, compared to Barrasso spending $5 million, per the Associated Press.

Hageman is a freshman Republican who received national attention after she defeated former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney in the 2022 midterms. Cheney had isolated herself from the party after she broke ranks to criticize former President Donald Trump for the riots at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Cheney was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the insurrection. Of the 10, only Reps. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) and David Valadao (R-CA) are still serving in the House. The other eight either chose not to seek reelection or, like Cheney, were defeated in the primaries.

Hageman, a hardline conservative and House Freedom Caucus member, faces Steven Helling in the primary, who hasn’t reported any fundraising to the Federal Election Commission. Helling ran for the seat in 2022 but as a Democrat, switching his party affiliation in 2024 and running a campaign on nuclear energy legislation.

“Even though I’m now a Republican, which fits my stance, I haven’t changed my positions,” Helling told Wyoming Public Media in June. “I was [also] pro-life when I was a Democrat.”

Democrats in both Wyoming congressional primaries are running unopposed: Scott Morrow for the Senate and Kyle Cameron for the House. Both Barrasso and Hageman’s seats are ranked “solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report.

Polls in Wyoming close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.