What to watch Tuesday in one of the last big election nights before November

Voters are casting their ballots in several states’ primaries on one of the final election nights before November, solidifying the matchups of several key House and Senate races. 

Four states are holding their primary elections on Tuesday, including Minnesota, Vermont, Connecticut, and Wisconsin. Although many of the primary races are uncompetitive, they set the stage for crucial races in November that could help determine the balance of power in Congress next year. 

Here are some of the top races to watch across the four states: 

Minnesota

One of the most closely watched races on Tuesday is the Democratic primary for Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-MN) seat representing Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District. 

The general election for the district is not considered to be competitive and is expected to favor the Democratic candidate. However, Omar faces a tough challenge from former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels, who previously challenged her for the seat in 2022. 

In that race, Omar won by only 2 percentage points — a margin that Samuels believes could benefit him, especially as some of Omar’s progressive colleagues have lost their primaries this year. Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), both prominent members of the “Squad,” lost their primaries after pro-Israel groups funneled millions of dollars toward their opponents. 

Also on the ballot in Minnesota is a group of Republican candidates looking to challenge Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). Two candidates are facing off in the GOP primary: Royce White, a former NBA player, vs. Joe Fraser, a Navy veteran. 

The race is not considered to be competitive as Klobuchar is expected to win reelection in the heavily blue state. 

Meanwhile, Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-MN) faces a primary challenge of her own despite being endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Whoever wins the GOP primary is expected to win the seat in November. 

Vermont

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is back on the ballot for reelection for Vermont’s Senate seat, where he is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. That sets the stage for him to face Republican candidate Gerald Malloy, who is also running unopposed. 

The race is not considered to be competitive as Sanders has held the seat since 2017. The race is rated as “Solid Democrat” by the Cook Political Report, benefitting the independent incumbent as he caucuses with Democrats in the Senate. 

Another race drawing attention in Vermont is the one for governor as Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) looks to secure a fifth term. However, Scott has faced pushback from state Democrats, who criticize the governor for blaming Democrats “for the state’s government failing under his watch.”

“I think we’ve got a pretty good case to make to the voters for why it’s time for a change,” said Jim Dandeneau, the executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party.

Scott is not facing any primary challengers, but there are two Democrats seeking to challenge him in the fall — including Peter Duval, who is running as a Democrat despite challenging Scott in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2022. 

Duval later went on to challenge Scott as an independent in the November election, which Scott won. Now Duval is running as a Democrat, which he says is evidence he is a “fusion candidate, still not part of any machinery.”

Connecticut

At the top of Connecticut’s primary ballot is the GOP primary to determine who will face off against Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) in November. 

Two Republicans will compete in the GOP primary: First Selectman Gerry Smith of Beacon Falls and businessman Matthew Corey of Manchester. Corey was previously the Republican nominee for Senate in 2018, but the state party opted to endorse Smith during its convention earlier this year. 

However, Corey earned enough of the convention vote, 29%, to qualify for the primary. 

Whoever wins will face Murphy in November, and the race is expected to favor the Democratic incumbent.

Also on the ballot is the GOP House’s primary challenge to Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) in the fall. That race features a faceoff between Bob MacGuffie, a corporate insurance executive, and Dr. Michael Goldstein, a physician and attorney. 

That race is expected to favor Himes and is not considered competitive by the Cook Political Report. 

Wisconsin

Wisconsin will also have a GOP Senate primary on the ballot on Tuesday to determine which Republican candidate will advance to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) in November. 

The primary features three candidates: Eric Hovde, Charles Barman, and Rejani Raveendran. Hovde is favored to win the primary, setting the stage for what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Senate races as Baldwin seeks to hang on to her seat in the crucial swing state. 

Baldwin holds one of 23 seats Democrats must defend in November in order to keep their slim majority in the Senate — meaning the race could determine which party holds control of the upper chamber next year. 

Elsewhere on the ballot is the Democratic House primary to take on incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), a seat that Democrats view as vulnerable heading into November. Three Democrats are set to appear on the ballot, including small business owner Rebecca Cooke, Wisconsin State Assembly Katrina Shankland, and Eric Wilson, chairman of the Technology and Communications committees with the Eau Claire County Democrats.

The race for Wisconsin’s 3rd District is considered to be one of the most competitive House races of the 2024 cycle and is rated as “Lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report.