What Will Happen if Ukraine Falls?

Recently, I wrote about Russian preparations to launch a major offensive against Ukraine: A pincer movement that would shut down Ukrainian forces from the north or the south. It is currently common to discuss a Russian move like this in the coming months. But, Russia can do it in many different ways. Mine is the most extreme. However, the crucial question is how Ukraine will defeat such an attack. Ukraine has performed much better than expected over the past year and Russia far worse. Major powers, however, have the luxury to stumble early and are therefore able to recover quickly from early defeats. Sometimes, the successes of less powerful powers die on the vine. Russia could theoretically keep the pressure on Ukraine, but that would be a last resort. So much uncertainty comes with war.

Belarus appears to be considering entering war. Although its utility is limited its knowledge about the balance of power within Ukraine could prove to be of benefit to Moscow. Russian aircraft – and intelligence operatives, I suspect – are now operating in Moldova, and Romania, its neighbor and occasional protector, is on alert. The tensions are high. France and other European countries have asked their nationals to leave Belarus. The U.S. has also warned its citizens to leave Russia.

What will the United States do if Ukraine can’t resist? Washington will be followed by Europe, for better and worse. The worst case scenario would be the Cold War-averted war. Because Russia didn’t have the power or capability to defeat NATO and its U.S. benefactors, that war did not occur. Given the risk of failure, and the much more likely, though unlikely, possibility that a nuclear war could occur, the Russians were not ready to attack.

However, the U.S. has to consider the possible consequences of an intervention. Russia could occupy Ukraine and effectively border Poland (Slovakia, Hungary, Hungary, and Romania). Ex-KGB agent President Vladimir Putin considers the fall of the Soviet Union to be a geopolitical disaster. This means that he could also see the decline of Russian power in Central Europe as equally regrettable. Russia’s geopolitical position would be improved if it returned to the Cold War borders after the defeat of Ukraine. This would be a sign that Russia might push westwards. It would put Europe in a position it never conceived it would be in: living with a hostile and powerful enemy at its border, and a not-always-predictable America guaranteeing its frontiers.

Now, as always, Russian occupation of Europe would threaten U.S. control of the Atlantic – something for which Washington fought two world wars. It would be more justified to intervene directly in these circumstances. It would be more able to maneuver in Ukraine and would have close and necessary allies.

The U.S. will need to quickly implement any decisions made by Ukraine if its defenses fall. It could send troops to Ukraine to force the Russians to retreat. Or it could choose to withdraw from combat. Engaging Russian troops directly with limited force can prove to be difficult, frustrating, and unpredictable. Acceptance of the outcome allows Russia to reorganize Europe. Undesired but necessary, a second cold war could occur. The best and most cost-effective option would be to strengthen Ukraine before it falls apart.

If Ukraine falls, the U.S. would be forced to engage Russia. It will be an option to fight directly in Ukraine, which will make it politically difficult. Presidents rarely get rewarded for avoiding a danger that hasn’t yet materialized even though it is likely.

Of course, I’m not predicting Ukraine’s imminent fall. I am simply evaluating all options in the event that it falls. Prudence – and the coming Russian offensive – demands it.

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