While Waltz defeated Democrat James David Stockton by 33 points in FL-6, polls show the race between Republican State Sen. Randy Fine and Democratic school teacher Josh Weil within the margin of error.

In a Monday interview, Florida GOP Chairman Evan Power told the Washington Examiner that a massive fundraising disparity in favor of the Democratic Party, the style of Republican voters, and tactical errors by Fine were all to blame for the alarmingly close race.

“In Florida, special elections have always been tricky for us. It’s just the way it is. But the fact that [the Democrats are] pumping tens of millions of dollars into the state is interesting. I think that obviously they have a mechanism in Act Blue that works well for that, and they nationalize these races and made us work to turn out our voters that are a little fatigued from just voting in November,” he said.

“We were late … The candidate was late on TV, which gave them an advantage. And obviously, I don’t think this is any credit to anything that the Florida Democratic Party is doing. It’s the fact that they pumped in over $10 to $12 million into … [the Sixth Congressional District], and our candidate had a million dollars total cash on hand, and I think at some point that plays into the early numbers … we had to activate our ground game to turn out our voters,” Power added.

Power said he was pitching funding for the race as early as December, but it was hard to convince Republican donors due to Waltz’s 33-point victory in November. Democrats eyed a weakness and, “desperate for a good story,” funneled massive sums of money into the race.

One disadvantage unique to Fine is that none of the districts he represented as state senator are in FL-6, making voters unfamiliar with him. Another point speaks to a larger disadvantage Republicans are facing in special elections.

“Because there aren’t the domino effects that normally occur here. We don’t have a state Senate race, and we don’t have a State House race going on simultaneously with the congressional race,” Power said.

The Florida Democratic Party didn’t respond to requests for comment.

A unique challenge for the GOP in FL-6 — one analysts have said plagued Republicans in other winnable races in 2022 — is candidate quality. In addition to low name recognition, Fine is nationally known for a series of controversies, often related to Israel and the war in Gaza.

In April 2019, Fine called a Jewish constituent of his a “Judenrat” for supporting an event discussing the Israel-Hamas conflict, a term referring to Jewish councils that collaborated with the Nazis.

His most inflammatory statement came on Feb. 21, after the bodies of the kidnapped Bibas family were returned to Israel. In a post on X, he denied the existence of “innocent Palestinian civilians,” accusing Gazans of taking part in the kidnapping and murder.

“There are demons that live on Earth,” he said of Palestinians in Gaza. “They deserve no state. They only deserve death.”

The post was partially hidden on X for violating its policies against hate and violent speech.

However, most of the problems Power mentioned are common for Republicans in special elections, particularly lower voter enthusiasm during off-cycle contests.

Randy Ross, a Florida-based conservative activist who campaigned there for Trump in 2016 and 2024, told the BBC that historically, special elections favor the party with higher enthusiasm. A Democratic victory would serve as a canary in the coal mine for national political trends.

“You can’t go just on name recognition in a special election,” he said. “You’ve got to drive people out to vote for you.”

Trump has been a significant enthusiasm booster for Republicans, with turnout dropping when he’s not on the ballot. In races like FL-6, Democrats have framed the contest as a national referendum on Trump’s agenda. Republicans, meanwhile, have struggled to rally their voters, with many complacent after the jubilation of November’s victory.

Democratic voters are also known to be higher propensity voters, largely thanks to an activist and younger base.

Democrats have fared well in special elections since Trump’s inauguration. Of 14 special elections since January, 11 have been won by the Democrats, showcasing an average margin of 10% greater than former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 showing, according to data collected by the Downballot. This includes flipping two reliably red State Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania.

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Despite Democratic confidence, victory on Tuesday is still a long shot. While Wisconsin looks to be a likely Democratic victory, Power is confident that Republicans will hold FL-1 and FL-6.

“We’re pretty confident. We had a great day on Saturday, getting us up to about 9% Republican turnout advantage. Obviously, we assume that we’re going to have a great Election Day turnout like we always do, and I think that puts us in a great place to send Randy fine to D.C. to fight for President [Donald] Trump,” he said, adding that a victory in FL-1 was hardly even up for question.