The intelligence community has been closely watching U.S. adversaries’ behavior leading up to the election and has issued multiple warnings about disinformation pushed by them to sow disinformation and division among the electorate.

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Russia wants Trump back

Russia wants former President Donald Trump to win the election, the intelligence community assesses, and they have created and distributed fake videos alleging voter fraud in Vice President Kamala Harris‘s favor to sow discord.

In the weeks leading up to the election, the Office of the Director of the National Intelligence concluded that Russian disinformation actors were responsible for multiple viral fake videos alleging malfeasance by Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).

In one, a man claimed he was a former student of Walz and that the governor had an inappropriate relationship with him, while in another, a woman alleged that Harris was responsible for a hit and run that left someone paralyzed, and in a recent one, a supposed Haitian man claimed to vote multiple times in Georgia for Harris.

A component of Russia’s support for Trump is the belief that a second Trump administration would be less inclined to continue U.S. military support for Ukraine. Trump has said he would end the war quickly, without providing concrete details as to how, while his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), has argued that aiding Ukraine is not a vital U.S. interest.

Russia remains “the most active foreign influence threat,” an ODNI official told reporters in September, adding that their effort “is consistent with Moscow’s broader foreign policy goals of weakening the United States and undermining Washington’s support for Ukraine.”

In late October, Vance acknowledged Russia’s election interference was problematic but did not specify what a U.S. response should include.

“A lot of countries are going to try to manipulate our voters,” Vance told CBS’s Face the Nation. “I think the bigger question is, what is in our best interest vis-à-vis Russia, not what price Russia should pay for putting out social media videos. And I think what’s in our best interest vis-a-vis Russia is, in particular, for them to stop supporting the Iranians as the Iranians engage in acts of aggression.”

The Ohio senator argued it’s “important for the killing to stop in Russia and Ukraine,” but that foreign policy should be dictated by the U.S.’s interests and not by another country “spreading videos on social media.”

Iran for Harris

Alternatively, Iran has also tried to push disinformation to further their own ambitions, but in Tehran’s opinion, a Harris administration would be less likely to escalate tension between the two countries, and so they are hoping the vice president will prevail.

In July, an ODNI official said US intelligence agencies had “observed Tehran working to influence the presidential election, probably because Iranian leaders want to avoid an outcome they perceive would increase tensions.”

Iranian hackers have targeted both campaigns, as well.

Iran and U.S.’s adversarial relationship takes form in many ways from cyberattacks and Tehran’s nuclear program and their potential pursuit of a nuclear weapon to the U.S.’s support for Israel and Iran’s support for Russia in their war against Ukraine.

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The Biden administration has provided Israel with billions of dollars of aid following last year’s Hamas terrorist attack that was the catalyst that destabilized the region in the ensuing thirteen months. Israel and Iran have been adversaries for decades, though they more frequently target one another through espionage and targeted attacks and not on a battlefield.

Trump’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has created a narrative that he would support the prime minister more than the current administration has, though Vance has acknowledged that an all-out war between Israel and Iran would not be in the U.S.’s interests.

Iran is believed to be targeting Trump and a handful of members of his first administration who were involved in the January 2020 assassination of Iranian military Gen. Qassem Soleimani, according to U.S. officials. Iranian leaders have vowed to avenge his killing.

The U.S. intel community has assessed that China does not have a specific preference for the presidency, though they are trying to ensure candidates down ballot with views they perceive as favorable get elected.

Regardless of who wins, the intelligence community expects foreign adversaries will try to sow discord in the days after Election Day, especially if it takes several days to count the votes, like it did in 2020. In that time, intelligence officials have said they think its possible the foreign adversaries would go as far as to try and stoke violence.