Others are looking to gamble on the outcome — a practice that dates back centuries and once carried the penalty of automatic excommunication.

All this guesswork is normal, but as the Italian adage goes: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal.”

Vaticanologists and Catholic journalists often keep informal databases of which cardinals are considered “papabile,” or possible successors to the Holy See.

Guessing which cardinal will be selected to sit on the Holy See has always been tricky, but Pope Francis’s shuffling of power dynamics during his pontificate has made predictions even more suspect.

Approximately 135 cardinals, hailing from over 90 different countries, are eligible to take part in the conclave. Of those, about 108 were appointed by Pope Francis.

Faithful spectators and cynical bookies typically cast their predictions based on formulas accounting for factors such as each cardinal’s perceived ideological bent, age, pastoral experience, ethnic background, country of origin, and more.

Several names have floated to the top of different papabile lists, providing an imperfect and speculative pool of prospects.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, is the most obvious candidate. His extensive curriculum vitae is packed with diplomatic work and administration experience. His views seem to align quite closely with those of Pope Francis, making him a safe choice for those seeking to avoid a chaotic transition. Parolin is also Italian, commonly considered a plus when one values stability in the papacy.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, also Italian, is another possible candidate considered in line with Pope Francis. The late pontiff appointed Zuppi as a special envoy for peace who handled Vatican diplomacy in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts.

Zuppi is an outspoken progressive believed to be even more open to reforms than Pope Francis.

The same can be said for Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines. Tagle was an ally of Pope Francis for years, accompanying the pontiff on overseas trips to Asia, and has echoed much of the late pope’s rhetoric on outreach to marginalized communities.

Cardinal Peter Erdo from Hungary is seen as among the most likely conservative candidates. He is theologically rigid and focuses heavily on doctrinal adherence, but he has shown deference to the Holy See even when seemingly out of step with its decisions.

Erdo is known as a private leader who avoids unnecessary spotlight and has largely dodged the question of a possible pontificate.

Patriarch of Jerusalem Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa has emerged as a dark horse candidate due to his widely applauded handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Pope Francis elevated him to the college in 2023.

His patriarchate has been defined by the war, during which he offered to trade himself in exchange for hostages held by Hamas. The granular details of his theology are unclear. His Italian heritage could be a benefit, counterbalancing the novelty of his candidacy with the stability of an Italian papacy.

Some Catholic archconservatives cling to the hope of traditionalists such as Cardinal Robert Sarah from French Guinea and Cardinal Raymond Burke from the United States. Both are considered unlikely to be chosen due to their high-profile disagreements with the liberal wing of the college, but stranger outcomes have happened.

Vatican experts and Catholic media have floated countless other cardinals. Each candidate’s likelihood can bring intense disagreement over odds.

Politics within the College of Cardinals, much like those within the greater Catholic Church, are impossible to understand in the simple left-right model used in secular democracies.

Democratic politicians are selected to represent their constituents in matters directly relevant to their worldly desires — economic concerns, social welfare, public policy, defense, and so on. Their power is derived from the consent of the governed, and a healthy democracy can remove a leader deemed out of line with the country’s interests.

The Bishop of Rome, one of the world’s last absolute monarchs, is accountable to no one. No one can remove him, and no one can overrule him. He is, ideally, much more concerned with the salvation of souls than culture wars and social policy.

Terms such as “liberal” and “conservative” take on a different meaning when discussing Catholic politics.

Pope Benedict XVI advocated against the death penalty, promoted more ecological awareness, and warned that capitalism creates “a worrying degradation of personal dignity through drugs, alcohol and deceptive illusions of happiness.” He was considered a rigid conservative.

Pope Francis spoke out aggressively against transgender ideology, compared abortion to “hiring a hitman,” and warned of “an air of faggotry” in the Vatican. He was considered the most liberalizing pope in living memory.

The positioning of each cardinal is instead best understood as a tangled web of interpersonal relations, liturgical preferences, ideologies of governance, and their perspectives on theological disputes.

POPE FRANCIS LEAVES BEHIND UNPREDICTABLE COLLEGE OF CARDINALS TO APPOINT SUCCESSOR

Even the most accomplished Vaticanologists and bookies are doing their best to make sense of internal dynamics unknown to those outside the inner cliques of the Holy See.

This palace intrigue is a defining aspect of the Vatican, one of the last absolute monarchies in the world and perhaps the last institution on earth where secular democracy gives way to the politics of a royal court.