Russia’s Failure in Conquering Ukrainian Skies
Ukraine Downs More Russian Fighter Bombers in a Single Day
On December 22, Ukraine’s air force commander, Mykola Oleshchuk, made a stunning announcement. In a single day, they had successfully downed three Russian Su-34 fighter bombers. This brings the total number of Su-34s shot down since the invasion in February 2022 to at least 21. These numbers do not include losses due to accidents, malfunctions, and friendly fire.
A Significant Blow to Russian Air Force
The Su-34 is Russia’s most advanced tactical combat platform, designed to take out strategic assets from long distances. It is also the most expensive aircraft in Russia’s arsenal, costing over $50 million per unit. With only about 145 Su-34s operational at the start of the invasion, losing 20% of their prewar inventory is a significant setback for the Russian Air Force, both in terms of combat potential and finances.
Replacing these downed Su-34s is not an easy task. Moscow has a limited production capacity at the Novosibirsk Aviation Production Association, which restricts the number of aircraft that can be built per year to single digits. Additionally, sanctions have blocked the purchase of high-tech military components from abroad, further exacerbating the airpower deficiencies.
Russian Air Force’s Inability to Perform Basic Missions
The failures of the Russian air campaign in Ukraine can be attributed to the air force’s inability to perform its most basic and essential missions. This inability hampers their much-touted blitzkrieg-style combined-arms strategy, which was expected to swiftly overpower NATO forces. However, in Ukraine, this strategy has come to a grinding halt.
During the Soviet era and in post-Communist Russia, airpower was considered crucial in any European theater conflict. While Russia’s aircraft designs may date back to the 1980s, their avionics were modernized from the late 1990s, expanding their role within the military. This operational plan was successfully demonstrated in Syria, where Russian airpower played a decisive role in saving the Syrian regime.
Shortcomings and Deficiencies in the Russian Military
Western military experts familiar with the Ukraine campaign have identified several causes for the Russian failures. These shortcomings are not isolated incidents but rather long-term deficiencies within the Russian military that will put them at a permanent disadvantage compared to the United States and its NATO allies.
One of the key issues is the Russian military’s inability to scale up operations. While they have succeeded in limited operations in the past, such as in Georgia, Crimea, and Syria, their performance in Ukraine has been dismal. The deficiencies across their services become exposed and amplified when operating on a larger scale.
Furthermore, the Russian Air Force lacks the necessary skills and training to perform critical missions, such as the suppression of enemy air defenses. Their pilots have low flying time per month, making them incapable of carrying out important tasks. Additionally, the Russians’ belief in their invulnerability over their own territory or occupied areas has proven to be a grave mistake.
Operational Challenges and Losses
The Russian Air Force’s need to fly low to avoid air defenses has resulted in the loss of modern fighters like the Su-34. These aircraft are vulnerable to short-range, low-altitude missiles, such as the U.S.-made Stinger, as their electronic warfare systems are not designed to counter such threats. Moreover, the Russians’ under-utilization of airpower and lack of coordination have further hampered their operations.
The introduction of Western-designed air defense systems in Ukraine has worsened the operational conditions for the Russians. These systems, initially considered too complex for the Ukrainians, have proven effective in shooting down Russian aircraft at extended ranges. The Russian military’s lack of knowledge about these systems and their operating orders has further compounded their difficulties.
A Bleak Future for Russian Airpower
Given the high rate at which the Russian Air Force is losing aircraft and the limitations imposed by exceeding service lifespan, it is challenging to see how they will be able to rebuild. With the imminent introduction of Western fighter aircraft to Ukraine’s air forces, Russia’s ability to operate confidently near Ukrainian airspace may soon come to an end.
It is clear that the deficiencies within the Russian military are not easily rectified. Mistakes are repeated, and corrective actions are rarely taken. These long-term shortcomings will leave Russia at a permanent disadvantage compared to the United States and its NATO allies.
Reuben F. Johnson is a defense technology consultant and a correspondent for the U.S. publication Breaking Defense.
What are the implications of the technological gap between the Russian military and its Western counterparts for their ability to defend against attacks?
Defenses and the strategic bombing of key targets. This is evident in their inability to neutralize Ukraine’s air defense systems, which have been effective in shooting down Russian aircraft.
Another major issue is the outdated and deteriorating state of Russia’s military infrastructure. Years of underinvestment and neglect have left their bases, airfields, and equipment in poor condition. This not only hampers their ability to carry out operations effectively but also puts their personnel and assets at greater risk.
Additionally, the Russian military lacks the advanced technologies and capabilities of its Western counterparts. While they have made some progress in modernizing their equipment, their efforts have fallen short in comparison to the advancements made by NATO countries. This technological gap severely limits their ability to compete on the battlefield and leaves them vulnerable to attacks from more sophisticated adversaries.
Moreover, there are serious concerns about the morale and professionalism of the Russian military. Reports have surfaced about low morale among troops, inadequate training, and a lack of discipline. These issues further contribute to their inability to effectively execute missions and adapt to the changing dynamics of modern warfare.
In conclusion, Ukraine’s successful downing of three Russian Su-34 fighter bombers in a single day is a significant blow to the Russian Air Force. It highlights their shortcomings and deficiencies in terms of combat potential, infrastructure, skills, and training. These failures not only hamper their ability to perform basic missions but also put them at a permanent disadvantage compared to their Western counterparts. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, it is likely that these deficiencies will continue to be exposed, further undermining Russia’s military capabilities.
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