Why skipping a Hail Mary presidential bid could be a smart move for Newsom

Vice President Kamala Harris edges out Gov. Gavin Newsom as voters’ favorite to replace President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, but that’s not necessarily bad news for the Californian.

Political strategists and Democratic Californians say waiting to mount his presidential bid until the 2028 election cycle could buy Newsom valuable time to build name recognition and save him from a chaotic race this year. If Democrats do end up replacing the top of their ticket, Biden’s replacement will be racing against the clock to pull off a challenging, last-minute victory against former President Donald Trump.

Both Newsom and Harris are widely viewed as replacements for Biden should he end his presidential campaign. However, with polling showing Harris performing better than Newsom in a race against Trump, the California governor may have escaped an election-year nightmare.

Newsom vowed not to challenge Harris for the nomination earlier this week while pledging to continue his support for Biden. The Democratic president’s grasp on his reelection ambitions remains tight, also Biden’s latest comments allowed for a caveat. Thursday evening, the president told the press he wouldn’t step down unless his team tells him, “There’s no way you can win.”

His words come as a variety of polling shows him consistently losing to Trump in November. Should the president have a change of heart and step down from his campaign bid, the latest polls continue to show Harris outperforming Newsom, making her the most likely Biden replacement.

A California Democratic activist says her governor has made peace with the setback to his presidential ambitions.

“This is not the time to make that power move, and I think Gavin Newsom understands that,” Aimee Allison, founder and president of She the People, told the Los Angeles Times.

While she generally supports Newsom, Allison believes Harris is the woman for the moment.

“My sense was, and still is, that a generational transition right now with Kamala Harris heading it is logical, and it’s also the closest thing the Democrats have to winning strategy this late in the cycle,” she said.

Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at UC San Diego, agrees it is in Newsom’s best interests to forgo competing for the Democratic nomination this election cycle. The professor told the Los Angeles Times ceding the nomination battle was a politically savvy decision.

“He took a reality and made it a virtue,” Kousser said of Newsom. “Certainly, he gave up a short-term possibility of coming into this role and leading the Democrats to victory in 2024.”

There’s a silver lining, Kousser says. Newsom has “set himself up quite well for 2028 and beyond.”

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Kousser said he sees this year and beyond as a valuable time for Newsom to build a national profile, all under the cover of campaigning for the 2024 Democratic nominee.

If Biden stays in the race and loses, Newsom has several years to pad his resume and expand political favor. If Harris gets pulled to stand in for the president and loses to Trump, her viability as a candidate in 2028 could also go out the window, leaving the path clear for Newsom.