Trump’s legal troubles may not hinder his campaign.
Former President Trump’s Legal Woes: What Could Happen?
News Analysis
Former President Donald Trump, the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, is facing a litany of criminal charges that could see him spend the rest of his life in prison.
While such legal woes would typically spell the end of any major political campaign, President Trump is no ordinary politician. His status as a former president and the most successful populist politician in modern history has given him an almost cult-like status among the conservative grassroots that is proving nearly impossible to break.
Despite facing 91 counts in four separate jurisdictions, with trial dates already set for before the Republican National Convention next year, President Trump remains the runaway favorite for the presidential nomination.According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, President Trump holds a 40-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is widely seen as his closest competitor.Yet should he prevail in the race for the nomination, his legal problems could potentially create an unprecedented situation in which a major party’s nominee (and perhaps the democratically elected president) will spend the rest of his life behind bars.
The question many of us are asking, therefore, is what is going to happen?
Saul Anuzis, a former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party who ran for chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) in 2012, told The Epoch Times that if President Trump were imprisoned before the convention, the RNC would likely search for an alternative nominee.
“No one believes Trump will be in prison, but if that were to happen I would almost guarantee another nominee,” said Mr. Anuzis. “RNC rules are set on the first day of the convention and could easily make all delegates ‘unbound,’ freeing them up to select another nominee.”
“If Trump really were imprisoned, there is no one to strong-arm delegates on his behalf,” he continued. “There are too many credible alternatives that could win to believe that would happen.”
Marina Medvin, a criminal attorney and columnist at Townhall, told The Epoch Times that constitutionally speaking there are no barriers to President Trump running a successful campaign from prison, although if he won he would be unable to carry out the job effectively.
“If he is incarcerated in the middle of a campaign he simply can’t campaign in person,” said Ms. Medvin. “But he’s not doing much in-person campaigning right now anyway. I’m not sure that it would affect him one way or another, quite honestly.”
“If Trump is incarcerated—in jail—there is technically nothing in the law that stops him from being president because no law says that a president has to be a free man, that a president cannot be incarcerated. Nothing in this example precludes his presidency.”
“However, I think that if Trump were incarcerated he would have a difficult time running the country out of a jail cell. There’s nothing that technically precludes a precedent from running the country but I don’t see how he can do the job effectively.”‘Needlessly Drag Him Through the Mud’
Alex Haberbush, president of the Lex Rex Institute, a legal and public outreach organization focused on promoting constitutional law, told The Epoch Times that while President Trump will remain eligible to run, the legal establishment does not seriously intend to put him behind bars.
“To appear on the ballot as the Republican nominee, Trump must meet the ballot requirements for each state, most (if not all) of which automatically permit the Republican nominee to appear, so there is no inherent legal barrier to him running as the nominee,” Mr. Haberbush explained.
“Trump is certainly qualified to hold office, even if he is convicted and even if he is imprisoned. How this would actually work, practically speaking, is another matter entirely. And the truth is that no one knows the answer to that question.
However, Mr. Haberbush also argued that while President Trump’s imprisonment would inevitably provoke a constitutional crisis, the intense logistics required make it a highly unlikely scenario.
“The idea of imprisoning Trump has never been seriously on the table,” he continued. “The sheer expense and logistics of keeping someone imprisoned with a full Secret Service detail—something he would get whether or not he ever ran for president again—makes it a possibility well outside any serious consideration. That’s not the goal. The goal is to waste Trump’s time, keep him off the campaign trail, and needlessly drag him through the mud.”
Some analysts similarly point out that owing to the laborious nature of the legal system, President Trump is unlikely to have been convicted of any crime by November 2024.
Dan Backer, an experienced political lawyer who has served as counsel to 100 campaigns and candidates, PACs, and organizations, told The Epoch Times that each individual trial will take months to reach a satisfactory conclusion.
“There is almost no likelihood a trial will be finished before the election,” Mr. Backer said. “The massive volume of pre-trial motions alone will take a great deal of time to wade through. And while the judges are inconsiderate as to his campaigning needs—four simultaneous prosecutions will force accommodation as to scheduling.”
“Meanwhile, the trial alone will take months. Any loss by Trump will surely be appealed as well. The wheels of justice move slowly, like a snail on a hot day.”
As President Trump’s march toward the nomination appears increasingly inevitable, his opponents must be asking what, if anything, they can do to stop him.
Some of his critics, including fellow Republican presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson, have suggested he should be ineligible to run on grounds of violating the 14th Amendment because of his role in the Capitol breach on Jan. 6, 2021. Although the plan may appear far-fetched, progressive legal groups are already filing lawsuits in several states with a view to having President Trump removed from the ballot.
If these lawsuits fail and they are unable to defeat him at the ballot box, their best hope may be that health concerns force him to pull out of the race. President Trump has alluded to this himself, telling The Washington Post last year: “You always have to talk about health. You look like you’re in good health, but tomorrow, you get a letter from a doctor saying come see me again. That’s not good when they use the word again.”The truth of the matter regarding the possibility of President Trump returning to the White House is that no one really knows what will happen. However improbable it may seem, President Trump has confounded his critics ever since he came down the escalator to announce his presidential campaign at Trump Tower in June 2015. The only thing that we know for sure is that it is bound to be interesting.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
How might Trump’s legal woes impact his reputation and political influence among his base of supporters?
Arantee the RNC would select someone else,” Anuzis said. “The stakes are too high for the party to risk nominating a candidate who is unable to campaign and potentially unable to fulfill the duties of the presidency if elected.”
However, the ultimate decision on whether to replace a nominee would likely rest with the RNC delegates at the convention. It would be a highly contentious and unprecedented situation, as delegates would have to weigh the potential legal troubles against the loyalty and support that Trump commands within the party.
Some experts argue that even if Trump were convicted and imprisoned, his base of supporters would remain fiercely loyal to him. They believe that his legal woes would only further solidify his image as a victim of the so-called “deep state” and strengthen support among his followers.
On the other hand, there are those who argue that Trump’s legal troubles would be damaging to his reputation and political influence. They point to the example of former Vice President Spiro Agnew, who resigned from office in 1973 after pleading no contest to charges of tax evasion. Agnew’s political career was effectively ended by the scandal, and he faded into relative obscurity.
But President Trump has proven time and again that he is adept at commanding media attention and shaping narratives to his advantage. Despite a tumultuous presidency and multiple legal battles, he has managed to maintain a loyal base of supporters who view him as a champion of their values and as a crusader against the establishment.
As for the legal process itself, President Trump is entitled to a fair trial and due process of law. It is ultimately up to the courts to determine his guilt or innocence and impose appropriate punishment if necessary. While the wheels of justice may turn slowly, the outcome of his legal battles will have far-reaching implications for the future of American politics.
In conclusion, former President Donald Trump’s legal woes have not dampened his popularity among his base of supporters. His status as a former president and his ability to shape narratives have shielded him from the full impact of the charges against him. However, the coming months and years will undoubtedly bring further twists and turns in his legal battles, and the ultimate outcome remains uncertain. Only time will tell how these legal woes will affect his political future and the Republican Party as a whole.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Epoch Times.
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Read More:
- ‘It Was My Decision’: Trump Defends 2020 Election Challenge
- Trump Says America Not ‘Much of a Democracy Right Now’
Epoch Times staff contributed to this report.
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