Can Biden pivot left on healthcare to avoid loss?

During the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) vowed, if elected, to implement Medicare for All, which is another name for an overall single-payer, government-run healthcare system.

Joe Biden, the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination and White House over Republican incumbent Donald Trump, took a different approach. In a move to appear more centrist than his progressive opponents, the former vice president and 36-year senator from Delaware suggested he’d veto such legislation.

Polling on a government-run healthcare system is mixed with some polls showing support, while others, such as Gallup, reveal that a majority of people (53%) still prefer a private-based system to 43% who do not. A significant majority of Republicans oppose a government-run system as does a slight majority of independents.

Recently, the Congressional Progressive Caucus released a new policy agenda. Axios noted in a headline, “Missing from progressives’ 2024 agenda: Medicare for All.” But is it? Aside from advocating price controls of all prescription drugs (under the misnomer of “negotiation”), and taking over the manufacturing of prescription drugs, as well as removing medical bills from credit reports, the document’s third bullet point contains this agenda item: close the Medicaid coverage gap, expand Medicare to include dental, vision, and hearing, and lower the Medicare eligibility age.

The entire point of Medicare for All is getting rid of the eligibility age. The document doesn’t specify, but the vagueness comes off like a tactic designed to allow the removal of the name without removing the goal. It puts President Joe Biden in a precarious position, especially since he posted on X in July 2023, “On my watch, health care is a right not a privilege in this country.”

Biden is set to face Trump in November, the first presidential rematch in 68 years. Biden trails Trump by a slim margin in most national polling. Still, Biden faces larger deficits in swing states he needs to gain the 270 electoral votes required to win reelection. Biden ran up the score in the popular vote in 2020 with a 5 million vote margin in California and 2 million in New York. However, a swing of a cumulative 43,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin would have resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie, likely throwing the presidency to Trump since Republicans had the advantage in the state delegation (each state delegation gets one vote).

Biden, despite overtures to progressives in the Democratic Party, still has work to do. Biden’s public support of Israel has put younger voters off, and the sweeping college debt forgiveness he promised never came to fruition. His latest, more targeted approach could survive legal scrutiny from the Supreme Court, but it is still unknown. Also, younger voters give Biden poor marks on inflation and the economy. But his attempts to cater to more progressive voters put him at risk of alienating independent voters, who he also needs to win in November.

Voters rank inflation and the economy as the second most important issue facing the country. The top issue? Immigration. Biden and congressional Democrats thought a failed Senate-backed immigration bill would turn immigration into a win, but it hasn’t worked out as they hoped. Biden, who earlier this year said he could do nothing more about illegal immigration without authorization from Congress, is now contemplating more executive actions — to the detriment of progressive voters.

With five months to go before Election Day, it’s questionable whether Biden embraces the Congressional Progressive Caucus agenda that also includes public banking options, the abolition of the federal death penalty, much higher taxes, a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants — recently endorsed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) — and fully legalizing marijuana.

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Supporting any of the measures by name within the document likely gets Biden questions about other parts that are outside the mainstream of most voters in the country. It’s a difficult balancing act, which is why Biden focuses so much of his attention on what could happen if Trump wins again. However, voters choose to give presidents another chance based on their record.

If Biden doesn’t figure out which way is best, he could join the ranks of Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Donald Trump as presidents in the last 50 years who lost their bids to stay in the White House.