Will Deterrence Hold Against North Korea What will 2023 look like?

Kim Jong Un’s 2022 was quite a year. North Korea set a new annual record Rocket launches  ShortAll devices included -range, medium-range and intercontinental reach devices. These They are often called “The sandbox”. “tests” In the news media but perhaps “demonstration” This is a more precise term. No Another similarly armed country goes to the cost of such repeated “tests”. 

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These demonstrations support both North Korea’s illicit arms sales Trade as well as coercing the international community and their immediate neighbors. Kim He also called on his country to increase its nuclear arsenal exponentially and mass-produce tactical nukes that can strike within. South Korean Territories, labeling South Korea As an “undoubted enemy” At a key party meeting according to North Korean state media.  South Korea’s “undoubted enemy” The designation could be an additional qualification beyond the traditional “puppet” charge.  

Chairman Kim His coercion power was boosted by declaring a lower threshold of nuclear weapons use. He declared that these weapons could be used pre-emptively and offensively, to win a war.  

New Conventional capabilities were also demonstrated. In Late December?, five North Korean unmanned aerial systems – drones – entered South Korean airspace. This It was an escalation in similar incidents years earlier with smaller, less sophisticated aircraft. The South Korean The military was challenged to keep track on these five aerial system, which led to a formal apology by the South Korean military.  It It seems like work is required. South Korea Within our Combined Forces Command As well as the UN CommandTo ensure that we can detect and intercept unmanned craft. Policy It is important to develop and deploy both military and civil capabilities.  

President Yoon This is South Korea His government and he reacted to the new and possibly increased nuclear threat.  resident Yoon It was suggested that the U.S. South Korea were already discussing joint planning for military drills That would involve nuclear assets. At The same time, however, the United States It was confirmed that it is under discussion Seoul Other military matters, other than joint nuclear exercises, are also covered.  The latest developments come as South Korea The goal is to expand the reach of ‘extended deterrence’ Against North Korean The U.S. has provided threats to the world, including American Nuclear and conventional forces. It It is not known if the “military drills” These included a conference call or tabletop discussions, paper wargames, and something else.  

What It is evident that we have much to do. “extended deterrence”. According To US Air Force doctrine, “extended deterrence is a commitment to deter and, if necessary, to respond across the spectrum of potential nuclear and non-nuclear scenarios in defense of allies and partners.  This commitment is often described as providing a ‘nuclear umbrella.’ Extended deterrence also serves as a nonproliferation tool by obviating the need for allies and partners to develop or acquire and field their own nuclear arsenals.”  

South Korea It is not the only one who worries about confronting nuclear and conventional coercion North Korea Other countries with similar values Nearly A year ago, the former Prime Minister Abe If you are unsure, ask! Japan should look for a similar arrangement in nuclear sharing NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy.  The The same question was asked by South Korea Many unofficial venues, since the rise in popularity of North Korea’s nuclear capability. Shortly After leaving government service, I gave a speech South Korea’s military academy. The First question from a Cadet: What is it? South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons.  

Effective Trust and confidence must be shown by senior government officials in order to deter aggression across our alliances. More Importantly, it requires support from the affected populations.  There There is unlikely to be any military benefit from nuclear weapons being in place Korea. There are likely to cause significant financial and material disadvantages.  But Military logic might be outweighed by political necessity. Our Cold War History in Europe This shows that it was not the first time that political requirements were given primacy. If We have reached the point when nuclear weapons can be stationed in Korea Public confidence is maintained by maintaining trust. But They must be U.S. weapons and under U.S. control.  

Conventional Deterrence is directly linked to nuclear deterrence. This This is clarified in the definition. “extended deterrence” above.  The Mandatory “to deter and, if necessary, to respond across the spectrum of potential nuclear and non-nuclear scenarios in defense of allies and partners.”  North Korea’s continued demonstration of short and medium range missiles communicates an ability to attack key civilian and military targets with minimal warning. MoreoverAccording to RAND Corporation research, “North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within range of major South Korean population centers, which it could use to kill many thousands in just an hour, even without resorting to chemical or nuclear weapons.”  

Seoul’s incredible growth, largely represented in towering, shining skyscrapers and multitudes of people in cars, on motorbikes, scooters, and even walking, produce massive traffic flows. It Seems like a metro Seoul’s 10 million plus population is always on the move.  A conventional attack could easily cause mass destruction. The Three battles for a smaller, less populated area Seoul The 1950s were well documented in large photographs in the Ministry This is Foreign Affairs. North Korea’s newly demonstrated unmanned aerial systems In counter-value strikes on the, capability is of obvious utility South Korean Infrastructure and population  ThusEven relatively small conventional capabilities are connected to massive artillery capable o mass destruction and the emerging nuclear threat. This raises important policy and strategy questions.   

North Korea Enjoys a unique relationship to the autocratic states bordering it China, Russia.  It It provides certain benefits for its neighbors, who will work to ensure North Korea’s continued existence in its present form.  Countering This requires the best efforts from all democratic nations.

FortunatelyWe see early signs that there is growth in the trade, security, and economic policies and strategies of democratic nations leading the U.S. Korea, Japan, Australia, IndiaThe Philippines, and other. South Korea’s “three-axis system and establishment of a “strategic command” A comprehensive deterrent strategy and policy is an example of what can be done by 2024. Now It is not too soon to integrate all elements of national strength among nations with similar values, in order to meet a challenge to us all.

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Wallace C. Gregson As an assistant secretary of defense, Asian And Pacific Security Affairs (2009-11), and is currently a senior advisor at Avascent International. Gregson Last used as Commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Pacific; Commanding General, Fleet Marine Force, Pacific; Commander, U.S. Marine Corps Bases, Pacific, headquartered in Camp H. M. Smith, Hawaii. He A senior advisor General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems.

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