Wisconsin’s Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Dane counties, the state’s most populous, are leading in absentee ballot returns. The Republican-leaning county of Waukesha is the third highest in terms of ballot returns.

According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel analysis, 162,517, or 86%, of requested absentee ballots in Milwaukee County have been returned. In Dane County, where Madison is located, 146,265, or 89%, of the requested absentee ballots have been returned. 

Waukesha County has returned 91% of its absentee ballots, with 122,647 ballots having been returned as of Oct. 30. Of the other WOW counties, the Republican suburban counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington that surround Milwaukee, Washington County residents have returned 40,008, 93% of the requested ballots, and Ozaukee County residents have returned 28,184 ballots, 93% of the requested absentee ballots. 

While the WOW counties were once Republican strongholds, their overwhelming support for Republicans has dwindled since former President Donald Trump became the face of the GOP.

“It’s kind of a political joke amongst pundits that it all comes down to Waukesha County, Wisconsin. There is some truth to that — the turnout is really important for Republicans there. It’s really a place that they need,” Mike Wagner, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, previously told the Washington Examiner. 

From 1996 through 2020, no Democratic candidate won a single municipality, town, or city in these three counties. President Joe Biden narrowly flipped the city of Cedarburg in Ozaukee County in 2020, highlighting somewhat of a shift in this region. 

“It used to be that the WOW counties really were lockstep together, and now the O in WOW is disappearing. Washington and Waukesha counties are still strongly Republican, Ozaukee County has been shifting more to the Democrats,” Wagner said. “WOW is losing its wow factor in a way.” 

In Milwaukee County, late-night “ballot dumps” were a point of contention during the 2020 election as Trump and his allies claimed these ballots were fraudulent. In reality, the sudden increase in ballots cast in favor of Democrats in Milwaukee County four years ago was because the state requires all ballots to be counted on election night. In 2020, Milwaukee County reported 170,000 absentee ballots, most of which went to Biden.

Milwaukee is the most populous city in Wisconsin by a significant margin, with more than 550,000 residents. Milwaukee uses a tabulation process called “Central Count,” in which all the ballots are tabulated and counted in a single location, according to the Recombobulation Area. Election workers at Central Count in Milwaukee do not begin counting those absentee ballots until the morning of Election Day, as per state law.

Voter enthusiasm in the state is also seemingly high. The state’s August primary, after both candidates had been chosen and without a competitive Senate primary for either party, had a record turnout, with 26% of those voting age or higher in the state voting, the highest in 60 years for a presidential year partisan primary.

This was in part due to Democrats waging a strong campaign against two GOP-backed ballot measures but could signal high enthusiasm for the general election. 

Wisconsin is one of several swing states leading up to the election. In 2020, Biden flipped the state blue by just 20,000 votes. In 2016, Trump flipped the state red by a little more than 27,000 votes.