World War III: What a U.S. vs. China War Would Look Like

Conservative News DailyFebruary 12, 2023

Published 2/10/2023 – What a War Between the U.S. and China Would Look Like: What is the ahref=”?https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/5-places-world-war-iii-could-start-in-2023/”>unthinkable happen? The United States of America and China are inextricably locked into the Pacific Rim’s international trade system. Some argue that this is a good thing. Krieg Unimaginable, but wars that people have waged Believed to be impossible Have a href=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/joe-biden-has-big-plans-to-sanction-russia-if-putin-invades-ukraine/”>nevertheless broken out.

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This article is updated Argument made eighteen years agoThe focus should be less on tactical and operational details in a US-China conflict and more on strategic objectives of the major combatants prior, during, and afterwards. Although a war between China and the United States could transform East Asia’s geopolitics, it could also leave some key elements unaffected. Tragically, a war between China and the US may be remembered only as “The First Sino-American War.”

America vs. China: What the War Would Look Like

Taiwan The newest is Most likely to trigger war China and the United States. The PRC’s assertiveness in Taiwan, coupled with the Biden’s decision ahref=”https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/”>administration To fulfill its commitment To make the island’s defense more explicit, it has been hard to imagine a conflicting source.

The way Beijing views the world’s political situation will determine how the war starts. If you are looking for operational surprise, attacking the US military personnel in the theater of operation would be the best option. This would allow you to inflict the maximum damage on the Americans so that they don’t respond. China might see political advantages in initiating a US response to its preemptive attack. China would launch military operations against Taiwan, and then wait for the US to respond. This is in an attempt to win global sympathy, and possibly a political debate that disrupts the US.

This would enable the United States to mobilize its forces and set them up unassisted. However, it is more likely that war will start with a Chinese attack against American forces at the conclusion of an increasing series of crises. Despite these facts, Chinese military power grows The PLA has preferred not to be subject to the full fury of an American military response over the past two decades. Politics aside, The U.S. must be prepared to withstand an attack by China that will incapacitate them and allow for a swift capture. Taiwan.

What would the Allies do?

Over the past eight years, the U.S.-led alliance system in the Western Pacific region has become more rigid. Japan has Recognized the threat fully China’s threat and has started to re-militarize. The U.S. has engaged Australia United Kingdom in a high level a href=”https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/05/fact-sheet-implementation-of-the-australia-united-kingdom-united-states-partnership-aukus/”>technology and security deal This would confirm the military support between both countries. The U.S. also encouraged Europe to get out of China’s technology supply chains. The U.S.-Indian relationship has steadily improved over time as tensions between Delhi, Beijing and China have increased and Indian dependence on Russia is approaching a dead end.

CSIS recently assumed Japanese participation in the conflict’s beginning, a conclusion that is consistent with regional analytical thinking. The extent of Japanese support will depend on the way the war starts. The U.S. can likely rely on some British and Australian intervention. Europe (and we don’t mean France) will likely remain neutral militarily, but will assist. The economic and financial future Conditions of war. The allied response to the war would also have an impact on the waging economic and financial aspects. The US-China Trade relations are a huge part of our lives A large chunk of the world’s economy is dependent on this relationship, and breaking it apart would have terrible consequences before the first bomb was dropped. Both India and South Korea have huge wild cards. They both prefer China to the US, but it would be a risky move to intervene directly.

China also has friends but not many. Both countries are still friends. Russia And North Korea Could play important roles in any conflict. Pyongyang’s contribution would probably be ensuring that Seoul and to a lesser extent Tokyo remain distracted from challenging China’s main effort. Russia could play a destabilizing role, contributing to China’s defense industrial needs while threatening disruptive action across a range of fronts. It would all depend on Russia remaining engaged in. Ukraine.

The “Hold Your Breath” Moments

The first “hold your breath” Moment will come when the PLA launches an overt attack on a US carrier aircraft carrier. This would be the most serious escalation against the United States, other than a nuclear attack. The war does not involve message sending and posturing, but a commitment to full-scale capabilities to defeat and destroy enemy forces. A direct attack on a US carrier would be the most dangerous. ballistic missile volley Not only are these missiles difficult to intercept, but they also could be carrying nuclear warheads. Much will depend upon the outcome of this initial fusillade.

The next terrifying moment is when U.S.-made missiles will strike the Chinese mainland. These could be hours or minutes after an attack against an American carrier. The nuclear advantage the United States has over China will make the first wave US missile attacks extremely stressful for the civilian and military leadership of the PRC.

At some point, China will need to sortie the greater portion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). This will result in two additional “hold your breath” moments. First, a Chinese warship will be destroyed. This could include an aircraft carrier or big amphibib. U.S. forces will regard this as a major objective, and China’s reaction will reveal much about Beijing’s commitment to the war. The next moment will involve China’s SSBN force. It will be a clear indication that Beijing is either very confident or extremely vulnerable if it decides to send its boomers into the American-infested areas.

The US air force and its land forces might be defeated on Formosa. If war turns sour, US policymakers may need to take deep breaths and consider how much blood and treasure they will spend on defense of the ROC government. This decision-making process will be watched closely by everyone in the Pacific Rim and around the globe.

Who will win?

It’s very hard to say who would win, as much depends on how the war will begin. The Center for Strategic and International Studies Recently prepared a report A series of wargames that simulate a Sino-American conflict over Taiwan. The CSIS study determined The most likely outcome of any conflict is a US victory that leaves Taiwan independent. This assumes a strong Taiwanese resistance and an immediate U.S. response. U.S. access will be granted to Japanese bases. There will also be sufficient anti-ship cruise missiles.

This formulation still leaves a ahref=”https://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-scorecard.html”>bewildering Unknowns We don’t know how well Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles will function, how destructive US cyber-attacks against the PLAN will prove, or how dangerous the F-22 Raptor Will be to a>=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/j-10c-the-deadly-fighter-jet-spine-of-chinas-air-force/”>conventional Chinese fightersHow effective the various elements of the PLAN will work together in combat. These are the key questions that will determine how successful the PLAN elements in combat.

Domain Command

How much will the United States affect Chinese communications, surveillance and electronic capabilities?

The communication between the shooters and the seers will be key to any attack on US forces. If the U.S. can interrupt this communication, it could destabilize the PLA. In contrast, cyber-warfare by China against the United States could increase domestic stakes for American policymakers. Space: How resistant will the U.S. satellite networks be to attack from Chinese electronic or kinetic measures? What damage can the U.S. do to Chinese surveillance and reconnaissance networks

Missiles vs. Missile Defenses:

How can the USN and USAF defeat Chinese cruise missiles and ballistic missiles? The PLAAF, PLAN and Second Artillery has many options For attacking US forces deployed and deploying US troops in depth. American ability to withstand the attack depends partly on the effectiveness and speed of the defenses against missiles and cruise, as well the ability to destroy launchers inside and around China.

Joint Operations

How will the different elements of the PLA work together? In the context of disruptive, high-intensity military operations?

Contrary to the U.S. army, the PLA lacks combat experience in the last 30 years. How effective will the U.S. commitment work? “jointness” Prepare the U.S. Navy and U.S. Air Force for cooperation?

Quality vs. Quantity:

Chinese forces are likely to have local numerical superiority in certain types of assets such as aircraft and ships. How American forces can prevail and survive in such situations will be determined by the (narrowing gap) between U.S. training and Chinese technology.

How the War Ends, and the Peace Begins

This war doesn’t end with a surrender Signed on to a battleship. It ends with one participant being beaten and embittered, likely ready for the next round. The control of Formosa will be decided by a binary. Either the Taipei government will continue to rule the island after a ceasefire or the Beijing government will take over. It is hard to imagine a deal that would give both the Taipei and Beijing some territorial control over the island. The war will be over when the United States stops supporting Republic of China forces in Formosa or when the Chinese naval and air forces are so weak that they cannot even consider a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan or quarantine of Taiwan. This will be the end of war, or at most continuous high intensity combat between China & the United States. It might take time for an enduring ceasefire to be reached, since the defeated government will make its own peace with the result and figure out how to sell it internally.

If China loses but the People’s Republic of China remains essentially intact and the Chinese Communist Party still in power, then “peace” This will only be an interlude between the next war. The CCP cannot accept Taiwan’s permanent independence and retain its domestic legitimacy. China, on the other hand, can claim victory by forcing the United States into a concession or by eliminating the alliance framework that supports and legitimizes US actions. The United States can no longer continue its war against South Korea, Japan Taiwan, Taiwan, or the Philippines if they have no interest in fighting. Both of these would result in significant damage to US military forces, and potentially to the US economy. This would have long-lasting and unpredictable consequences on US domestic politics.

The aftermath of any victory will feel more like a wilderness than peace, regardless of who it is.

A Window for War

The window of war between the United States, China and Japan could be open for some time. Both sides will need to be prepared for victory, which will require a lot of diplomatic, military and technological resources. Still, we can’t forget that the China, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States trade network constitute the heart of the most dynamic economic regions the world has ever seen. To the detriment and poverty of all, war would kill that engine.

It will take a lot of diplomatic skills and political acumen to prevent war, but it is worth the effort.

Expertise in Authorship and Experience

A 19FortyFive Contributing editor, Dr. Robert Farley Since 2005, he has been teaching security and diplomacy courses in the Patterson School. He earned his BS in 1997 from the University of Oregon, and his Ph. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997 and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington, 2004. Dr. Farley is also the author of Grounded, The Case for Abolishing America’s Air Force (University Press of Kentucky 2014), Battleship Book (Wildside 2016, 2016), Patents for Power : Intellectual Property Law, and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago 2020), and other works. Waging War With Gold: National Security and Finance Domains Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). His contributions have been extensive to many magazines and journals, including the National Interest and Diplomat: APAC. Dr. Farley is also the founder and senior editor for Lawyers, Guns, and Money.