Worsening Economy Paves the Way for a Maverick in 2024, Analysts Say

News Analysis

Amid an ongoing deluge of negative economic data, analysts and strategists looking at the field of potential GOP contenders for the nomination in 2024 say that the public is increasingly fed up with the state of the economy and is not really concerned with whether a candidate has run for or held high office in the past. Rather, they are far more interested in anti-establishment credentials and the ability to alleviate desperate economic conditions.

With inflation now at a 40-year-high of 9.1 percent, ongoing supply-chain problems, and official data on July 28 showing the country slipped into a technical recession with gross domestic product (GDP), a key indicator of prosperity, dropped by 0.9 percent in the second quarter of the year on the heels of a 1.6 percent fall in the first quarter, the midterm elections in November are increasingly seen as a referendum on the incumbent party’s economic performance.

But the Democrats appear likely to pay a price for voters’ frustration well beyond the midterms, and the question for 2024 is which GOP candidate can fix the economy, experts say. This fosters opportunities for political outsiders without experience in cabinet-level positions, they maintain.

Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks to a crowd of supporters at the University Club of Chicago in Chicago, Illinois, on June 20, 2022. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images) No Shoo-In for Pence

While some might assume a onetime vice president to be one of the more obvious choices in a primary race, and while former Vice President Mike Pence may enjoy the highest levels of name recognition compared to others in the party whose names come up often in discussions of possible 2024 matchups, such as Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis, Maryland’s Governor Larry Hogan, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, and former Secretary of State Mike

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